India’s 2026-27 sugar season may open with about 3 million tonnes of stock, sharpening the food-vs-fuel trade-off
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DAM Capital projects India's 2026-27 sugar season opening stocks near 3mt (about 35 days of demand), the lowest in a decade, leaving supply highly sensitive to rainfall and crushing/recovery outcomes. Tight inventories plus firm global prices may keep domestic sugar markets supported and intensify competition between sugar production and cane-based ethanol. A forced shift toward grain-based ethanol could also transmit pressure into maize/rice feedstock markets.
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India could enter the 2026-27 sugar season with about 3 million tonnes of opening inventory, the lowest in a decade and enough for roughly 35 days of consumption, according to a DAM Capital Advisors research report cited by ANI. The report pegs 2026-27 sugar production at around 29 million tonnes, but says deficient rainfall and an early start to crushing could weaken final output. It estimates total ethanol demand at around 14.5 billion litres, warning that low stocks leave the market more exposed to weather and firm international prices and could intensify competition between sugar production and ethanol made from cane.
