22 Major Banks Lay Out Their Fed Rate Calls for September 2026
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WSJ-compiled forecasts show a strong consensus among major banks for a Fed rate hike in September 2026, with some institutions projecting a more hawkish 75 bp tightening path. This reinforces higher-for-longer expectations, tightening financial conditions and raising discount rates across risk assets. In the near term, the news is supportive for the U.S. dollar and generally headwinds duration-sensitive equities and crypto.
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▼ Bearish
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⚠️ AI سے تیار کردہ تجزیاتی سمجھ خبروں کے مواد پر مبنی ہے اور صرف معلوماتی مقاصد کے لیے فراہم کی گئی ہے۔ یہ سرمایہ کاری کا مشورہ نہیں ہے اور نہ ہی BingX کے خیالات کی نمائندگی کرتی ہے۔ سرمایہ کاری میں رسک شامل ہے۔ براہ کرم ذمہ داری سے ٹریڈ کریں۔
A broad swath of Wall Street banks and research shops is leaning toward another Federal Reserve rate increase in September, according to The Wall Street Journal's latest compilation. The survey also indicates expectations are firming not only around a possible move this week, but also around the prospect of a second hike before year-end.
In the WSJ tally, 19 of 21 institutions expect the Fed's next step to be a rate hike in September. Most respondents see total tightening of 50 basis points across 2026. Bank of America, Deutsche Bank and RBC are more hawkish, projecting 75 basis points of cumulative increases. Goldman Sachs also expects a September hike, but looks for only 25 basis points of total tightening in 2026.
A minority view sees the Fed moving the other way. Jefferies expects the next move to be a 25-basis-point cut in December rather than a September increase. Oxford Economics forecasts no rate changes in 2026 and sees the first cut in 2027.
WSJ-reported forecasts by institution (September call; total change in 2026):
- Bank of America: September rate hike; +75 bps
- Deutsche Bank: September rate hike; +75 bps
- RBC: September rate hike; +75 bps
- Barclays: September rate hike; +50 bps
- BNP Paribas: September rate hike; +50 bps
- Citigroup: September rate hike; +50 bps
- HSBC: September rate hike; +50 bps
- JPMorgan: September rate hike; +50 bps
- Mizuho: September rate hike; +50 bps
- Morgan Stanley: September rate hike; +50 bps
- MPA Macro: September rate hike; +50 bps
- MUFG: September rate hike; +50 bps
- Nationwide: September rate hike; +50 bps
- Nomura: September rate hike; +50 bps
- Piper Sandler: September rate hike; +50 bps
- Société Générale: September rate hike; +50 bps
- TD Securities: September rate hike; +50 bps
- UBS: September rate hike; +50 bps
- Wells Fargo: September rate hike; +50 bps
- Goldman Sachs: September rate hike; +25 bps
- Jefferies: December rate cut; -25 bps
- Oxford Economics: No change in 2026; first cut expected in 2027
This is not investment advice.
