Treasury boosts long-bond buybacks, sparking Bitcoin rally; strategists flag $180,000 long-term upside

Bitcoin jumped after the U.S. Treasury expanded its buyback plans for longer-dated debt, a move markets read as supportive for system liquidity and risk appetite. On Aug. 19, the Treasury said it will lift the per-operation cap for buybacks focused on 10- to 30-year Treasurys from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The higher limits apply to operations scheduled from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. Bitcoin rose about 6% intraday on the announcement, pushing toward the $69,000–$70,000 area. The move was amplified by an estimated $1.1–$1.4 billion in short liquidations. Why buybacks are resonating with crypto traders Treasury buybacks put cash back into the financial system and can help ease pressure on long-term yields by absorbing supply where trading has been congested. Lower yields tend to support risk assets by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding exposures such as Bitcoin. The backdrop has been a sharp rise in long-end rates, with the 30-year Treasury yield recently topping out at 5.34%, a multi-year high that has weighed broadly on risk markets. The buyback increase, in effect, signals an effort to relieve some of that strain. A program now being scaled up The buyback framework has been in place since 2024, intended to smooth supply-demand imbalances along the yield curve. Doubling the cap per operation marks a meaningful expansion in the program's potential impact. Targets: $100,000 first, $180,000 later Standard Chartered strategist Geoff Kendrick linked the Treasury's move to Bitcoin's rebound and reiterated a pathway to $100,000 by year-end 2026. The bank had already pointed to that level, but the expanded buybacks add a clearer, event-driven catalyst to the broader liquidity narrative. The $180,000 figure cited in strategist commentary is framed as a longer-term scenario, not an immediate outcome of this single announcement. It would depend on supportive liquidity conditions persisting and intensifying. What the short squeeze signals The scale of the short liquidations suggests a sizable segment of the market had been positioned for further downside, likely reflecting the same high-yield regime the Treasury actions aim to counter. With the buyback window running only through early November, any liquidity tailwind from the program is time-bound. Key macro signposts to watch Into year-end, investors tracking Bitcoin will likely focus on two variables: whether Treasury buybacks are executed as outlined once operations begin in September, and whether the 30-year yield continues to retreat from its 5.34% peak. From around $70,000, the move to Standard Chartered's $100,000 target implies roughly 43% upside. A $180,000 outcome would require closer to a 160% gain from current levels.