U.S. September Jobs Miss Forecasts; Nasdaq Sets Intraday Record; G7 Plans 100M-Barrel Strategic Oil Release

U.S. markets finished Friday higher after a sharply weaker-than-expected September payrolls report eased near-term rate-hike expectations, while a G7 plan to tap strategic reserves jolted oil prices. Equities: The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.19% to 27,190.86 after touching a fresh all-time intraday high. The S&P 500 added 0.73% to 7,722.72, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.49% to 51,176.96. The Nasdaq 100 also set new records intraday and at the close, ending up 1% at 30,817.93 after reaching 31,017.52, up 1.7% at the session peak. For the week, the S&P 500 slipped 0.27% and the Dow fell 1.26%. The Nasdaq added 0.45% for a third straight weekly gain. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.65% for its third consecutive weekly advance. The Russell 2000 climbed 0.94% on Friday but edged down 0.16% for a fourth straight weekly decline. Leadership remained concentrated in growth and AI-linked names. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 2.4% on Friday and rose 3.69% for the week, with 4 of 30 constituents lower. Arm Holdings gained 5.18%, Broadcom rose 3.35%, ASML advanced 3.25%, AMD added 2.95%, Lam Research rose 2.17%, Applied Materials gained 2.03%, and Intel slipped 0.56%. Optical and photonics names strengthened, lifting the Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE) 3.09%; AAOI rose 7.71%, Coherent gained 5.59%, CRDO added 4.03%, Lumentum rose 3.79%, and Corning climbed 2.35%. Space-themed stocks led gains: Planet Labs PBC jumped 8.43%, SpaceX rose more than 7%, Rocket Lab gained 4.91%, Intuitive Machines added 4.7%, and the Tema Space Innovators ETF advanced 4.73%. Among large caps, Tesla gained nearly 5% and finished about 4.7% higher after third-quarter deliveries of 486,500 vehicles, down 2.1% year over year but about 5% above expectations. NVIDIA rose as much as 3% intraday, marking its highest intraday level in over four months since mid-May, and closed up about 1.3%. Not all sectors participated. Nike fell 3.6% after citing weak China sales, cutting guidance and announcing layoffs. Memory and storage names slid after Nikkei reported Toshiba plans to double traditional hard disk drive (HDD) production capacity for AI data centers by fiscal year 2027, raising supply concerns. Seagate Technology and Western Digital each dropped about 10.2%, SanDisk fell roughly 3.8%, and Micron slid more than 2%. Rates: The U.S. Treasury market swung sharply after the jobs data. The 10-year yield fell below 5.16% to a session low, then reversed and rebounded more than 10 basis points to as high as 5.30% around midday, near Thursday's 5.34% peak, the highest since 2002. The 2-year yield slid to 4.70%, its lowest since September 21, before climbing to about 4.85%. For the week, the 10-year yield rose about 12 basis points, its fifth straight weekly increase and the longest run since November 2024. The 2-year yield fell around 3 basis points, snapping a six-week streak of gains. Markets interpreted the payroll miss as reducing near-term Fed pressure, but longer-end yields continued to face headwinds tied to energy prices, inflation expectations, fiscal deficits, heavy issuance and term premiums. Europe: Volatility persisted in eurozone debt. The France-Germany 10-year yield spread widened to its largest since 2011. France's 2-year yield traded as high as 3.84%, while Germany's 2-year yield ranged from 2.94% to 3.06%. Over the week, Germany's 2-year yield fell nearly 25 basis points, while France's 2-year yield rose nearly 14 basis points. Investors continued to focus on France's fiscal outlook and political uncertainty. FX and crypto: The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) accelerated lower after the payrolls report, falling to an intraday low of 101.67, down more than 0.4% on the day, retreating from Thursday's 102.20 peak, its highest since April 2025. The yen rebounded, with USD/JPY breaking below 157.00 to a low near 156.37, down more than 0.7%. EUR/USD rose to 1.1286, recovering from Thursday's lowest level since May 2025. Offshore yuan (CNH) strengthened after earlier weakness, rebounding from 6.7175 to as strong as 6.7008, its best level since September 23, approaching 6.70. Bitcoin climbed above $87,100 in European hours, its highest since September 23, then reversed after the U.S. open, sliding below $83,900 intraday. It was below $84,400 by the U.S. close, down about 0.5% over 24 hours and up roughly 0.5% for the week. Oil: Crude prices whipsawed after the Group of Seven said it would coordinate the release of 100 million barrels of oil and petroleum products from strategic reserves through the International Energy Agency, planned to run for four months and including sizable diesel reserves. WTI briefly fell to about $88.06 a barrel, down more than 5%, while Brent dropped to around $98.40, nearly 4% lower at the lows. At settlement, WTI November fell 1.90% to $91.11, and Brent December dipped about 0.06% to $102.25. On a front-month basis, WTI fell about 1.41% for the week, its second straight weekly decline, while Brent rose about 4.94% for a second consecutive weekly gain. Analysts noted that refined products and processing capacity, not just crude supply, remain key constraints, with diesel a focal point. Gold and metals: Precious metals saw a sharp reversal. After the jobs report, gold futures briefly jumped above 1% to around $4,259 and spot gold topped $4,220, but gains faded as yields rebounded. COMEX October gold settled down 0.94% at $4,133.7 an ounce, the lowest close since August 4. Gold fell 3.59% for the week, its biggest weekly drop since June 5 and a second straight weekly decline. COMEX October silver closed down 1.23% at $59.977 an ounce, the lowest close since August 3, and slid 6.68% for the week, its steepest weekly loss since the week of June 26. Copper edged up 0.15% to $6.492 per pound, but still fell 3.1% on the week, its largest weekly decline since June 26. Data: The U.S. Labor Department reported September nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000, far below the 90,000 consensus. August payroll gains were revised down to 133,000 from 162,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and year-over-year average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0%. After the release, market pricing for an October Fed hike fell to about 20%–21% from roughly 26% beforehand. Trading note: Market swings can be abrupt. OCO (One-Cancels-the-Other) orders allow two linked orders to be placed at once so that one automatically cancels the other when filled. Edit / Stephen