U.S. June PCE Records First Decline in Four Years as Wall Street Debates Fed's Next Move
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June PCE slipped -0.1% m/m with softer y/y readings, signaling easing inflation, while consumption and incomes grew modestly and the savings rate fell to a four-year low, highlighting resilient demand. The Fed held rates steady, but banks and futures remain split on further hikes versus eventual cuts; FedWatch still prices meaningful September hike odds. This keeps near-term rate and USD pricing sensitive to incoming inflation and labor data.
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According to BlockBeats, U.S. inflation data for June signaled a significant cooling trend, with the PCE price index recording a 0.1% month-over-month decline—the first such drop in four years. On a year-over-year basis, inflation eased to 3.7%, while core PCE rose 0.1% monthly and 3.3% annually. Despite moderating inflation, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at its July meeting. Financial institutions remain divided on future policy: JPMorgan anticipates a 25-basis-point hike in December, while Goldman Sachs and Barclays expect no further moves this year. Conversely, Bank of America projects three hikes starting in September, whereas Citigroup forecasts a series of cuts beginning in October. As of the latest report, CME FedWatch data indicates a 65.2% probability of a September rate hike, reflecting shifting market sentiment following the recent Fed decision.
