Federal Judge Blocks Minnesota's Prediction Market Crackdown
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A federal judge preliminarily blocked Minnesota's ban on prediction markets, finding the state law likely preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act and that prediction contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction as swaps. The ruling reduces near-term legal and operating risk for regulated and crypto-adjacent prediction venues (e.g., Kalshi/Polymarket) and signals stronger federal primacy over fragmented state enforcement, supporting sector participation and liquidity.
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A federal judge has temporarily stopped Minnesota from enforcing a state law that would criminalize the operation of prediction markets, siding at the preliminary stage with Kalshi, Polymarket and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
In a ruling issued July 28 local time, U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez said the state statute likely conflicts with the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). The court found prediction-market contracts are structurally treated as "swaps" under the CFTC's jurisdiction, meaning federal regulation would preempt the state ban. The judge concluded the plaintiffs are "likely to succeed on the merits" as the case proceeds.
The order also held that allowing the law to take effect could cause "irreparable harm" to Kalshi and Polymarket. The preliminary injunction will remain in place until the court issues a final judgment.
