U.S. June PCE Posts First Monthly Drop in Four Years; Markets Split on the Fed's Next Move
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June PCE printed a rare monthly decline and slower YoY/core readings, signaling easing inflation, but consumption remained resilient and the savings rate fell to a four-year low. The Fed held rates unchanged, yet sell-side forecasts diverge sharply on renewed hikes versus eventual cuts. FedWatch still assigns a majority probability to a September hike, keeping rates and USD-sensitive markets reactive to incoming inflation and demand data.
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U.S. inflation data for June pointed to moderating price pressures. According to ME News on July 31 (UTC+8), the PCE price index fell 0.1% month over month, the first monthly decline in four years, while the year-over-year rate eased to 3.7%. Core PCE rose 0.1% on the month and was up 3.3% year over year.
Consumer activity remained resilient. June personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% month over month, personal income rose 0.2%, and the savings rate slid to 2.7%, a four-year low.
Even as inflation cooled, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at its July meeting. Views on the path ahead remain fragmented: JPMorgan expects a 25-basis-point hike in December and sees September as a possibility if inflation reaccelerates. Goldman Sachs and Barclays project no rate changes this year. Bank of America looks for three hikes in total beginning in September. Citigroup continues to call for successive rate cuts in October, December, and January 2027.
CME FedWatch shows markets currently assign a 65.2% probability to a September rate hike, down from before the policy announcement. (Source: BlockBeats)
