BMO: U.S. Core PCE Inflation Slows to 3% in August, Undershooting Forecasts
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Revised BEA benchmark data show core PCE inflation slowed to 3.0% y/y in August, below consensus and the Fed's projection, easing perceived urgency for an October rate hike despite continued economic expansion and robust private hiring. The shift lowers near-term policy tightening risk, typically reducing front-end rate pressure and increasing sensitivity across USD and risk assets as markets reprice the probability path for further hikes.
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BlockBeats reported that Bank of Montreal analysts wrote in a Sept. 30 research note that revised annual benchmark figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) point to a bigger-than-expected downward adjustment to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, even as inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target.
The analysts said core PCE inflation in August cooled to a 3% year-over-year gain, below the market consensus of 3.3% and the Fed's own 3.2% projection.
They added that economic growth is still continuing and private-sector hiring remains solid. In their view, these dynamics, together with the inflation revisions, have somewhat reduced the pressure for another rate increase in October.
