Trump Targets Polysilicon Imports With Section 232 Measures; Saudi Official Flags Risk of Iran-Linked Attacks

Good morning. It's Friday, August 7, 2026. Here's your Futures Morning Rush market brief. Top stories - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange said the urea market has recently been influenced by multiple uncertain factors, urging members to strengthen investor education and risk controls and to remind investors to trade rationally and in compliance. - Reuters: An official decree shows the Democratic Republic of the Congo has banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates. Under a new tax regime, mining byproducts of significant economic value will be taxed using a 55% valuation coefficient. The framework takes effect in three months, while reporting requirements start immediately. - Mysteel: WBN, one of Indonesia's largest nickel ore suppliers, has been approved for an additional roughly 25 million wet metric tons of RKAB quota for 2H 2026. Including 1H approvals, its 2026 quota rises to about 37 million wet metric tons; no official document has been issued to WBN so far. - USDA: As of August 4, drought-affected areas in U.S. soybean-producing regions were 26%, unchanged week over week. - World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs saw $3 billion of net inflows in July, reversing two months of outflows. AUM rose to $530 billion; holdings increased by 23 metric tons to 4,068 metric tons. - CCTV: On August 6 local time, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, setting minimum import prices and additional tariffs on imported polysilicon and derivative products to support U.S. polysilicon, semiconductor and solar supply chains. - USDA: Net soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing week ending July 30 were 32,000 metric tons, far below market expectations of 100,000–400,000 metric tons. Macro and geopolitics - AlHadath (Saudi media): Senior sources said Iran and Oman reached a preliminary agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. An announcement could come within days; the deal still needs approval by Iran's National Security Council and would last 60 days to restore navigation. - Financial Times: Sources said Fed Chair Walsh would be prepared to raise rates at the September meeting if inflation prints over the next few weeks come in strong and market pricing shifts toward higher borrowing costs. - Yemen's Houthi forces warned Saudi Arabia against taking aggressive actions against Yemen, saying any escalation would carry consequences. - Iran's Fars News Agency: Under the agreement, U.S. and Israeli vessels would be barred from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - A Saudi official said multiple intelligence reports indicate the Houthis, Iraqi militias and Iran's Revolutionary Guard are coordinating plans for attacks against Saudi Arabia. Overnight markets - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.15% to $4,298.70/oz; COMEX silver fell 0.81% to $61.78/oz. - Crude: Front-month U.S. crude rose 4.0% to $78.23/bbl; front-month Brent gained 4.57% to $83.08/bbl. - LME base metals: Zinc +1.09% to $3,769.5/ton; aluminum +0.80% to $3,267.0/ton; lead -0.05% to $1,884.5/ton; copper -0.13% to $14,092.5/ton; tin -0.94% to $56,185.0/ton; nickel -2.30% to $16,720.0/ton. Steel and bulk commodities - Mysteel (week ended Aug. 6): Rebar output fell for a second week; social inventories rose for a third week; mill inventories shifted from declines to gains; apparent demand turned down. Rebar output was 1.898 million tons, down 105,100 tons (-5.25%) WoW. Apparent demand was 1.7848 million tons, down 204,600 tons (-10.28%) WoW. - Mysteel: Hebei Iron & Steel Group's first August 2026 ferrosilicon inquiry price is RMB 5,800/ton (July: RMB 5,950/ton; Aug. 2025: RMB 6,200/ton). Procurement volume is 16,600 tons (July: 15,400; Aug. 2025: 16,100). For silicon metal, the August inquiry is RMB 6,000/ton (July: RMB 6,130/ton). The tender volume for 75B ferrosilicon is 3,640 tons, up 260 tons from the prior 3,380. - Mysteel: Utilization at 523 coking coal mines was 67.0%, down 0.1% MoM. Average daily raw coal output was 1.504 million tons, down 0.2 million tons MoM. Inventories were 4.141 million tons, down 0.71 million tons MoM. - Mysteel: Average profit for independent coking plants was 41 yuan/ton. Regional averages: Shanxi secondary-grade coke 30 yuan/ton; Shandong secondary-grade 6 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia metallurgical coke 56 yuan/ton; Hebei secondary-grade 3 yuan/ton. Agriculture - USDA (week ending Jul. 30, 2025/2026): Net soybean export sales were 32,000 metric tons versus 302,000 the prior week; export shipments were 346,000 metric tons versus 490,000 the prior week. - USDA Drought Monitor: As of Aug. 4, drought exposure for U.S. soybean production was 26%, unchanged WoW, but up 23 percentage points from 3% a year earlier. - USDA: A private exporter reported a sale of 1.22 million metric tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. - MPOA: Malaysia's palm oil production in July is estimated to rise 7.54%. Malay Peninsula +12.63% MoM; Borneo +1.48% MoM; Sabah -0.77% MoM; Sarawak +7.78% MoM. - SPPOMA: From August 1–5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil fruit bunch yields fell 9.3% MoM; the oil extraction rate rose 0.18% MoM; output fell 8.35% MoM. - Unica: Brazil Center-South sugarcane crush in June was 69.791 million tons, down 14.5% YoY from 81.622 million; sugar output was 3.903 million tons, down 26.33% YoY from 5.298 million. - Brazil Ministry of Agriculture: In the first half of July, Brazil Center-South crush was 50.65 million tons, up 2.6% YoY; sugar output was 3.19 million tons, down 5.7% YoY; ethanol output was 2.43 billion liters, up 12.1% YoY. - Mysteel: As of Aug. 6, imported cotton inventories at major ports rose 0.34% WoW to 592,600 tons, including 507,000 tons at Qingdao (up 94% YoY), about 44,600 tons at Zhangjiagang and nearby warehouses, and about 41,000 tons at other ports. Energy and chemicals - Saudi Aramco is set to cut the official selling price of Arab Light for Asian buyers by $0.50/bbl next month to $2 below the regional benchmark, according to a price sheet. - Enterprise Singapore: For the week ended Aug. 5, Singapore fuel oil inventories rose by 1.443 million barrels to a five-week high of 19.577 million barrels. - Longzhong: As of Aug. 6, MEG inventories at main East China ports fell to 354,000 tons, down 42,000 tons from Monday and 62,000 tons from last Thursday, the lowest this year and the lowest for the same period in five years. Domestic ethylene glycol output this week was 345,700 tons, up 4,500 tons (+1.31%) WoW. - Longzhong: As of Aug. 6, soda ash inventories at domestic producers rose to 1.8495 million tons, up 26,900 tons (+1.48%) from Monday; versus 1.8651 million tons a year earlier, down 15,600 tons (-0.84%) YoY. - Longzhong: As of Aug. 6, 2026, national daily float glass output was 1.422 million metric tons, down 0.42% from July 30; weekly output was 9.955 million metric tons, down 0.42% WoW and 10.84% YoY. Sample enterprise inventories were 74.898 million standard boxes, down 455,000 (-0.6%) WoW and up 21.1% YoY. Inventory turnover was 34.3 days, down 0.1 day. - EIA: For the week ended July 31, U.S. natural gas inventories stood at 3.117 trillion cubic feet, up 33 bcf WoW; down 12 bcf YoY (-0.4%); and 195 bcf above the five-year average (+6.7%). Metals - Reuters: The DRC export ban on copper and cobalt concentrates was issued via an official decree; the new byproduct taxation uses a 55% valuation coefficient and becomes effective in three months, with immediate reporting requirements. - World Gold Council: July gold ETF inflows totaled $3 billion; AUM $530 billion; holdings 4,068 metric tons (+23 tons). - China Gold Association: In 1H 2026, gold output from domestic and imported raw materials totaled 229.988 tons, down 22.773 tons (-9.01%) YoY. Gold consumption in China was 511.412 tons, up 1.23% YoY. - Mysteel: As of Aug. 6, spot lithium ore inventory among 32 sampled traders was 124,000 metric tons, up 15,000 WoW; sellable inventory was 91,000 metric tons, up 27,000 WoW. - SMM: Domestic social inventories of cast aluminum ingots fell to 24,000 metric tons, marking 10 straight weeks of drawdowns totaling 38,900 metric tons. This week's drawdown slowed sharply to 0.02 metric tons, signaling weaker outbound momentum. - Aladdin: Guinea Silver Valley International Bauxite Project construction is progressing smoothly, with completion expected by December. System commissioning is slated for January–February 2027, and official production and exports are expected to start in March, with designed annual capacity of 30 million tons. - Albemarle CEO: Global lithium inventories remain low as supply lags demand from EVs and battery storage, keeping the spot market tight. The 2026 battery storage production forecast was raised by 11%, and the lower bound of the 2030 global lithium demand forecast was lifted by 100,000 metric tons. Analyst watch - Methanol: China Everbright Futures said methanol stayed weak Thursday, with the 2609 contract down more than 3% intraday. Expectations for resumed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have increased, though traffic remains well below pre-conflict levels and reopening is incomplete. Iran is China's largest methanol import source and most exports transit Hormuz; a gradual resumption could lift forward import arrivals. A drop in geopolitical risk premium has weighed on prices. Near term, methanol may remain pressured by crude, while traders watch Middle East tensions, rising coal costs and restocking ahead of peak downstream season. - Nickel: Hua Wen Futures said the main SHFE nickel 2609 contract slid sharply Thursday, finishing at RMB 127,460/ton, down 2.69% and marking a new low for the period after a near-2.8% intraday drop. The additional WBN quota approval weakened the market's prior supply-tightening narrative for Indonesian ore. Despite falling domestic refined nickel output and some cost support, high inventories and ample-supply expectations are pressuring prices. Focus remains on additional RKAB approvals for other Indonesian mines and shifts in macro sentiment; nickel is likely to stay weak in the near term. Calendar - Aug. 7 (TBA): China July total imports and exports and key commodity data. - Aug. 7 (TBA): UN FAO monthly report. - Aug. 7 20:30: U.S. July nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted).