Bitcoin whales step up accumulation as retail stays on the sidelines

Bitcoin pushed above $87,400 last week before the advance faded. Prices later dipped toward $83,000, then rebounded to break above the top of the weekly range near $85,000. While the market has since gone quiet, on-chain data suggest large holders are back in buying mode. Santiment reported that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated 41,025 BTC over the past 10 days. Their combined balance has climbed to 13.64 million BTC, about 67.93% of Bitcoin's total supply. The analytics firm said these "whale" and "shark" wallets are now at their highest holdings since the mid-August market rally. Smaller holders have not followed suit. Wallets with less than 0.01 BTC have been largely unchanged over the same period. Santiment noted that historically, stronger market conditions often emerge when large holders accumulate while smaller traders sell, but stressed the current setup is not a guaranteed signal for Bitcoin's price. Attention now turns to whether whales continue adding BTC and whether retail begins trimming exposure, which could offer clues on near-term sentiment. Separately, BIT Research said Bitcoin's bear market may already be over. The firm pointed to a cycle low in late July, when BTC held above $62,900 and downside momentum began to weaken. Since then, Bitcoin has reclaimed key levels, including its 21-week moving average at $69,272, and has moved above its March 2024 high of $73,084. BIT Research also highlighted Bitcoin's cost basis: the True Market Mean is currently $76,897, implying the typical holder is back in profit. That dynamic could ease selling from investors looking to exit at breakeven. Under its bullish case, the firm projects an upside range of $185,000 to $215,000. Not all analysts are leaning immediately bullish. Crypto analyst Doctor Profit argued a short-term pullback could come before the next leg higher, citing bearish readings across RSI, MACD/PPO, and MFI, along with weaker trend strength on the ADX indicator. Institutional demand has remained visible despite the slower tape. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $2.4 billion in inflows last week. Flows started this week more modestly but stayed positive, with just over $31 million added on Monday and another $66 million on Tuesday. Corporate buying also continued. Strategy bought 1,665 BTC over the past week at an average price of $85,681, lifting its holdings to 847,666 BTC. Strive also added exposure, with CEO Matt Cole saying the company spent $94.5 million to buy 1,107 BTC at an average of $85,400, bringing total holdings to 27,462.