Bitcoin Trades Into NFP Week as Fed Rate Path Turns Less Certain

ChainCatcher report: QCP Capital’s weekly market update says the market’s view on September Fed policy shifted sharply after Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, with the implied probability of a September rate hike jumping from 35% to 70%. BTC fell about 2.5% on the day. Spot ETFs, after nine straight sessions of net inflows, flipped to a net outflow of $2.02 billion. The initial hawkish repricing in the dollar did not hold. DXY slipped below 99.5, helping gold, silver and BTC claw back losses. On the fiscal side, the U.S. Treasury is set to launch its first long-end liquidity support operation on September 9, lifting the purchase cap to at least $4 billion from the prior $2 billion. The August 30 auction yield for 30-year Treasuries printed at 5.216%, the highest since 2001. Markets are watching whether the operation meaningfully improves long-end liquidity. Inflation data remain mixed. July PCE rose 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%. CPI came in at 3.4%, while core CPI was 2.5%. Brent crude gained about 10% over the week amid attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and force majeure disruptions tied to Qatari LNG, keeping inflation pressure elevated. Fed Governor Waller said that if incoming data over the next two weeks stay on the current trajectory, it would argue for a pause in hikes. With ADP employment at just 38,000—the weakest reading since January—the estimated odds of a September hike have eased back to roughly 45–50%.