Polymarket's U.S.-Regulated Market Tops $111M in Open Interest, Nearly Double Since 2026 World Cup
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Polymarket's US-regulated, fiat-only venue reached $111.4M in open interest and now represents 54% of total Polymarket volume, diverging from the post-World Cup decline seen across prediction markets. The shift toward KYC, USD-denominated contracts and longer-dated positioning suggests demand is broadening beyond crypto-native collateral flows. Near-term impact is likely concentrated in the prediction-market segment rather than major crypto assets.
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Polymarket's U.S.-regulated prediction market has climbed to $111.4 million in open interest, nearly doubling since the 2026 FIFA World Cup ended in mid-July. The product now represents 54% of total volume on Polymarket, a notable shift for a platform that only launched after Polymarket's December 2025 acquisition of QCEX.
The rise stands out against broader industry cooling. Since the World Cup concluded on July 19, combined open interest across major prediction venues, including Kalshi, has fallen by roughly 20%. Polymarket US moved in the opposite direction, extending gains through August and reaching $111.4 million by Aug. 22.
The World Cup itself drove outsized activity across prediction markets. Polymarket's soccer category generated more than $2 billion in volume during the tournament's first 10 days. Kalshi's peak combined open interest during the event was around $2 billion before sliding to roughly $1.5 billion by late July.
Polymarket US differs structurally from the original Polymarket. While the core platform is crypto-native and uses on-chain collateral, the U.S. version operates exclusively with fiat USD contracts under full KYC compliance. It does not rely on crypto collateral or anonymous wallets. Its growing share of Polymarket volume signals demand from users comfortable with identity checks and dollar-denominated exposure, rather than short-term, high-churn speculation.
Positioning has also shifted as the tournament cycle ended. World Cup match-by-match markets tended to open and close within hours, reflecting short-dated contracts tied to specific games. Post-tournament, remaining contracts are generally longer-dated, a dynamic that can lift open interest even as trading volume moderates.
Kalshi still leads by a wide margin in absolute open interest—about $1.5 billion versus $111.4 million for Polymarket US—but the trajectories have diverged, with Kalshi trending lower while Polymarket US continues to build.
