Fed funds futures imply 69.7% odds of a 25 bp September rate hike

Fed funds futures pricing a 69.7% probability of a 25 bps September hike signals tighter financial conditions and a higher expected policy path. This typically pressures duration-sensitive risk assets, supports short-term rates and the USD, and can widen credit spreads. Near-term market focus should shift toward upcoming inflation and labor data as marginal repricing could drive elevated cross-asset volatility.