CFTC tells prediction markets to drop sportsbook-style moneyline odds displays
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The CFTC is pressuring regulated prediction markets to remove American-style moneyline odds, citing deceptive marketing and higher risk-taking versus probability pricing. This underscores rising federal scrutiny of event contracts and the legal boundary between financial instruments and gambling, as states and tribal regulators contest jurisdiction. Compliance by major venues could reduce user engagement or alter product design, modestly affecting sentiment toward crypto-adjacent prediction markets and related liquidity.
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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued letters instructing prediction markets under its oversight not to display American-style moneyline odds, Bloomberg reported, citing the letter.
In the correspondence, the agency warned against "deceptive" practices in how products are listed, advertised and solicited. The CFTC pointed to research suggesting that plus/minus odds formats encourage greater risk-taking than probability-based pricing, where contracts trade in cents and reflect implied odds.
The issue also intersects with a broader jurisdictional fight. CFTC Chair Michael Selig (@ChairmanSelig) has argued the agency has exclusive federal authority because event contracts are financial instruments rather than wagers. State and tribal regulators, for their part, are backing language in the CLARITY Act aimed at preserving their authority over sports betting.
Kalshi said it will meet the letter's deadline. Polymarket declined to comment.
