Bank of Japan Maintains Policy Rate at 1% as Underlying Inflation Nears 2% Target
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The BOJ held its policy rate at 1% as expected, while signaling a continued tightening bias as underlying inflation nears 2% and risk balance improves. A dissent favoring an immediate 25 bp hike highlights growing sensitivity to upside inflation and global financial conditions. The updated forecasts modestly lift FY2026 growth and trim CPI, keeping JPY rates and cross-currency volatility in focus.
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On July 31, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its policy rate at 1%, aligning with market expectations following a significant hike to the highest levels since 1995 in the previous month, according to reports from BlockBeats and Kitco. The decision was marked by a dissent from board member Sō Takada, who advocated for a 25-basis-point increase, citing a new economic phase and the need for flexibility against upside inflation risks. The BOJ's official statement noted that underlying inflation is approaching the 2% target and financial conditions remain accommodative. In its updated outlook, the central bank lowered its fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.5% from 2.8% while marginally raising the GDP growth projection to 0.6%. The bank reaffirmed its commitment to adjusting rates based on economic activity and price trends as global risks stabilize.
