Bloomberg survey: Most economists see the Fed staying on hold in 2026

BlockBeats reports that Bloomberg surveyed 48 economists from Sept. 4 to Sept. 9. Only 13 said they expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at this month's meeting. Most respondents anticipate policymakers will keep rates unchanged at both the September and October meetings, citing a modest recent cooling in inflation and the looming U.S. midterm elections. That "wait-and-see" view diverges sharply from market pricing, with investors putting the odds of a hike as high as 70% for next week. The gap underscores heightened uncertainty about the near-term policy path under Fed Chair Walsh. Rate-hike expectations have been rekindled by Walsh's hawkish remarks at last month's Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he cautioned that inflation has yet to show meaningful signs of easing. The Fed's October policy meeting also falls just days before the Nov. 3 midterm election. About half of those surveyed said the proximity would require "exceptionally strong data" for officials to feel comfortable changing rates so close to Election Day, while 43% said the election is unlikely to materially influence policy decisions.