Polymarket Reportedly Weighs $1B Raise at >$20B Valuation, Moving Closer to Kalshi

Polymarket is in preliminary discussions to raise about $1 billion at a valuation above $20 billion, Bloomberg reported Aug. 4. If finalized, the fundraising would bring the prediction-market startup closer to rival Kalshi, which secured a $22 billion valuation in May. Polymarket has not confirmed any deal and declined to comment; the figures and the investor lineup remain early-stage and unfinalized. How the reported valuation fits Polymarket's recent funding history A >$20 billion valuation would be at least about 33% above Bloomberg's reported $15 billion valuation from April, and more than double the roughly $9 billion figure Bloomberg cited for an October 2025 round. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) previously said its October investment implied an about $8 billion valuation before that capital was added, a difference that likely reflects varying valuation methodologies rather than a direct conflict. The April picture includes both reported and confirmed elements. Bloomberg said roughly $1 billion was raised at a $15 billion valuation with participation from D.E. Shaw and G Squared. Separately, ICE confirmed a $600 million investment on March 27 and noted it had already invested $1 billion in October 2025. ICE did not disclose the valuation tied to its March investment. U.S. regulatory return and product rollout Polymarket has moved back into the regulated U.S. market. CFTC records list QCX LLC (doing business as Polymarket US) as a designated contract market as of July 9, 2025. The exchange has filed rule changes covering fees, liquidity programs, surveillance and trading procedures. Bloomberg reported that Polymarket launched its U.S. exchange after the April financing. Polymarket's U.S. access page suggests a waitlist-based rollout, pointing to phased access rather than an immediate nationwide launch. Revenue and trading momentum Bloomberg sources said Polymarket's annualized revenue has more than tripled since April to above $1.2 billion; Reuters reported it crossed $1 billion in June. These are annualized run-rate estimates based on recent performance, not audited full-year revenue. Volume data show sharp U.S. growth alongside uneven overall expansion. Combined July volume across Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi reached a record $50.6 billion. Kalshi led with $37.7 billion. Polymarket US climbed 54% to $5 billion, while Polymarket's international platform declined 26% to $7.9 billion. Benchmarking against Kalshi Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation on May 7, led by Coatue, with investors including Sequoia, a16z, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley and ARK. Kalshi highlighted an 800% increase in institutional trading volume over six months and said annualized trading volume rose from $52 billion to $178 billion, citing company-provided figures. Kalshi has also claimed more than 90% of U.S. prediction-market activity. Independent July data showed Kalshi processing nearly three times the combined volume of Polymarket's U.S. and international venues. Investors considering Polymarket may be pricing in factors beyond U.S. volume alone, including international reach, crypto-settlement infrastructure, brand strength and strategic ties to ICE, which could support a higher valuation even as Kalshi maintains a larger trading footprint. Valuation caveats and key risks Trading volume is not a direct proxy for enterprise value. Fee levels, retention, compliance costs, market mix and post-event behavior all influence revenue quality. In July, open interest declined after the World Cup even as monthly trading hit a record. Regulatory and legal uncertainty remains a meaningful overhang. Several states argue that certain event contracts—especially sports-related—constitute gambling under state law. Nevada's Gaming Control Board filed a civil complaint in January seeking to block Polymarket and QCX from offering what it describes as unlicensed wagering in Nevada. The industry continues to debate whether the Commodity Exchange Act grants the CFTC exclusive authority over federally registered event-contract platforms, a question that could reshape market access. Some states have taken a more permissive stance: North Carolina passed a law in July recognizing CFTC-regulated prediction markets and imposing a 6% tax on their trading-fee revenue starting in 2027. Bottom line A confirmed $1 billion round at a valuation above $20 billion would narrow Polymarket's gap with Kalshi and signal sustained investor appetite for prediction markets spanning sports, macro outcomes and crypto-linked contracts. The process remains in its early stages, with no disclosed term sheet or closing timeline, and any valuation premium is likely to be weighed against regulatory, legal and revenue-quality risks as the sector evolves.