Dollar Rises as Brent Tops $100 on Middle East Safe-Haven Bid

The U.S. dollar advanced Thursday as investors leaned into safe-haven assets amid intensifying Middle East tensions, while global oil prices pushed back above $100 a barrel. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.3%, with the greenback strengthening against most major currencies. Brent crude traded at $100.60 in afternoon dealings, its first move above $100 since May. The spike in oil reflects mounting fears that the conflict could disrupt regional supply. Traders are increasingly treating geopolitics as a key catalyst for the next leg in crude. Prediction markets are also repricing the odds of fresh records. The implied probability that crude reaches a new all-time high by September 30 jumped to 12% from 7% over the past 24 hours. For a new high by December 31, the odds rose to 19% from 16%. Key takeaways - Demand for the U.S. dollar is picking up as Middle East risks fuel a flight to safety. - Oil's move above $100 a barrel aligns with higher geopolitical risk premia and tighter supply expectations. - Prediction markets now assign greater likelihood to crude setting new all-time highs by year-end. What to watch - Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East that could alter supply risk and pricing. - Signals from OPEC and the International Energy Agency that may reshape market expectations. - How geopolitical developments through September 30 and December 31 influence the path toward potential new oil price peaks. Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.