Bitcoin Reclaims 365-Day Moving Average Despite Rate-Hike Overhang

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed 8.10% from Wednesday's low of $75,064, rebounding after a selloff triggered by the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate increase. The bounce suggests the early-September pullback from around $82,000 reflected markets increasingly pricing in a hike rather than a shift in Bitcoin's underlying trend. At the time of writing, the yearly (365-day) moving average stood at $80,701. Supported by its recovery from the July $60,000 area and the latest upswing off roughly $76,000, BTC has moved back above the 365-day moving average for the first time since November 2025. The move is seen as a notable win for bulls given the macro and policy backdrop. The CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate, liquidity conditions are tightening as inflation persists, and the market is weighing the possibility of multiple rate hikes in 2027. The Bank of Japan has also raised interest rates. Even so, Bitcoin has continued to grind higher, prompting some observers to draw parallels with the 2023 market bottom. On-chain data points to increasing conviction among long-term holders. CryptoQuant figures show long-term holder supply has been rising steadily since February, while short-term holder supply—coins aged 155 days or less—has been falling. Crypto analyst Funding Vest described the period as a record accumulation phase, arguing it reflects weaker hands exiting while higher-conviction investors add. If prices keep advancing, reduced liquid supply could tighten conditions further and raise the risk of a supply shock. Still, some caution flags remain. Analyst Joao Wedson noted trading activity is muted compared with prior bull-market peaks, potentially signaling softer retail participation. Bitcoin is also still working through a bearish trend break and may not have fully transitioned into a sustained bull run. Additional rate hikes and a firmer U.S. Dollar Index could also pressure risk assets. Summary: Bitcoin has moved back above its yearly moving average for the first time since November 2025. Its ability to advance despite a string of bearish headlines suggests resilient, bullish underlying conditions.