Bitcoin Jumps 5% After Fed's Waller Signals Support for Holding Rates Steady

Bitcoin slid to around $77,000 last week after a hawkish address by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve was not finished battling inflation. Markets responded by pushing the implied probability of a rate hike up to 57%. Sentiment shifted on Thursday, September 3, when Fed Governor Christopher Waller said at a Reuters event that he would lean toward supporting no change in interest rates at the September meeting. Bitcoin climbed 5% on the day. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also drew $730.8 million in net inflows, underscoring strong demand. The move lifted the broader crypto market and lowered the implied odds of a rate increase from 57% to roughly 50%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. With expectations split, market sensitivity to incoming data and Fed commentary is likely to remain elevated into the decision. Fed decisions and crypto market reaction In 2026, Bitcoin has often treated FOMC rate days as key inflection points. January, March, and June decisions were followed by downside reactions and increased liquidations. Even if the Fed holds rates steady in September, the market could still react negatively. The last major tightening cycle highlighted the risk. In 2022, the Fed raised rates from 0.25% to 4.50% to curb inflation, draining liquidity from crypto and accelerating Bitcoin's bear market. A fresh hike would signal a renewed rise in the cost of capital and could trigger a repricing in BTC. Dovish guidance would tilt the setup the other way. Continued inflows into spot ETFs alongside strengthening demand could support a more durable shift toward a bull market. Summary Bitcoin saw sharp intraday swings after comments from Warsh and Waller. In 2026, rate-hold decisions have generally coincided with bearish BTC reactions, with April standing out as the only bullish exception.