Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%-4%, Bitcoin Rises to $81,700
The Federal Reserve kept its federal funds target range at 3.75%-4% on Wednesday. The vote was 10-2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase. It was the first time since 1992 that a Fed governor and a regional bank president dissented together on the same side. Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters after the vote that politics did not influence the decision, which came days before the midterm elections. Warsh has said forward guidance is inappropriate outside a crisis, leaving investors to interpret economic data on their own.
The committee removed language on when a rate increase might help bring inflation back to 2%. The replacement text says additional information will determine the policy stance. The Fed upgraded its description of economic growth to strong from solid. The policy signals point toward tighter monetary conditions. Fed funds futures and the Fed dot plot favor an increase by December. Some market pricing puts the odds near three in four. Inflation remains elevated, and both dissenters favor action to address it. Warsh and other Fed officials have said additional data will determine when officials act.
Bitcoin showed a limited response, with most traders having expected rates to stay unchanged. The price climbed to about $81,700 within minutes of the announcement. It then fell below $80,500 before recovering toward $81,000. Bitcoin often makes a limited initial move after Fed announcements, with a clearer direction emerging over the next day. Bitcoin stood at $81,478 at the time of writing.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in net inflows of $110 million on October 26 and another $176 million on October 27. The inflows suggest some institutional investors are buying bitcoin after price declines. Other observers have pointed to sales by large holders during price gains. Bitcoin remains about one-third below the record near $126,000 reached in October 2025. Prospective rate increases are unfavorable for an asset that has benefited from inexpensive financing. The market has spent months adjusting to the possibility that easy monetary conditions have ended.
Some traders view the unchanged rate as evidence that the Fed will proceed slowly. Other traders see December as the decisive test. Bitcoin has held support at $80,000 in recent sessions. A decisive fall below $80,000 would leave bitcoin exposed to the next support level.
The next major political test for bitcoin comes on November 3, when voters nationwide go to the polls. Cryptocurrency has not been a dominant campaign issue. The crypto industry spent about $176 million across more than 100 midterm races to build a bipartisan congressional bloc that could defend industry interests after President Donald Trump left office. Fairshake, the largest super PAC in the industry, led the spending effort and set strategy, repeating the role it played in the 2024 election cycle.
