On 13 February 2026, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou described crypto as undergoing a "self-correction" ahead of a potential 2026 recovery. They cited Bitcoin's mid-$60,000 move below an updated ~$77,000 production cost, anticipated U.S. regulatory clarity as a catalyst for institutional inflows, and reaffirmed a long-term $266,000 target.

Bitcoin fell from above $90,000 on January 28 to around $60,000 last Friday while an unidentified whale moved 8,200 BTC to Binance over the past two days. After a prior deposit, the price quickly dropped about 3% from nearly $69,000 to $65,000, and the whale has since sent another 2,000+ BTC amid expectations of further volatility with the upcoming US January CPI data.

Bitcoin is sliding, with price near $66,399 and the Realized Price at $54,951 seen as the first structural support. LTH Cost Basis is climbing while Realized Price declines, narrowing a prospective $43K–$51K zone over the next quarter. A sustained break below $54,951 would increase the risk of a deeper bear phase.

Bitcoin traded above $66,000 on Friday after falling about 30% over the past month. Alphractal said the network's long-term Realized Cap Impulse moved below zero for the first time in three years, a shift historically followed by extended drawdowns. A global uncertainty gauge is at a record high, reinforcing a cautious backdrop for risk assets.

A recent update from 10x Research links Bitcoin's sharp fall from $90,000 to $60,000 within a few weeks to heavy institutional flows and unwinding of structured positions. The firm highlighted unusually high trading volumes in BlackRock's IBIT ETF and concentrated Asian-session gains, which have fueled market speculation about distress at a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund based in Hong Kong, while cautioning against blaming a single entity.

In 2025, Bitcoin closed the year with a 6% loss while gold surged 65%, driving the BTC/gold ratio down nearly 70% from its late-2024 peak to about 13 ounces. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas argued that judging Bitcoin’s "digital gold" status on a single year of underperformance ignores its long-term record of outpacing gold in most years since 2012. Weak U.S. spot BTC ETF inflows and stronger gold ETF demand have widened the divergence, though the BTC/gold ratio is approaching support levels last seen in the 2022 bear market.

In August 2024, funding rates last turned deeply negative; in October 2025, CryptoQuant's BCMI sat near 0.5 before sliding to 0.2 by February 12. The firm says this mirrors early bear phases, with $5.4 billion in realized losses on February 5 and price still about 18% above the $55,000 realized level.

Bitcoin is under renewed selling pressure, with its Combined Market Index (BCMI) falling into the low 0.2 range, according to CryptoQuant. Price recently lost the $70,000 level and is trading in the mid‑$60,000s, while the $60,000–$62,000 band is highlighted as a critical support area. Current BCMI readings remain above prior cycle bottoms near 0.10–0.15.