Bitcoin hovered around $90,000 and repeatedly failed to hold above $92,000 over the past month amid softer US labor data and cooling growth. On Dec. 9 Target trimmed its fourth quarter outlook; on Dec. 10 Macy's warned inflation would squeeze margins; on Dec. 18 Nike posted lower quarterly sales. The chance of a Jan. 28 rate cut fell to 22% and the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.15%.

Bitcoin hit an all‑time high above $126,000 in October before sliding to just over $87,900, a drop of about 30%. Analysts outline a base case at $143,000, a bullish scenario above $189,000, and a bear case near $78,500, with expectations for continued gains through 2026. Their outlook assumes sustained investor adoption, including an estimated $15 billion in ETF inflows, and cites US policy discussions that could strengthen market participation.

Recent Bitcoin declines appear driven by market structure rather than widespread selling, with on-chain readings suggesting limited broad distribution. The move is linked to stablecoin-denominated shorts and market-maker hedging. Nearly $300 billion of previously dormant BTC returned to circulation in 2025, indicating a shifting supply landscape.

On Thursday, David Sacks said the landmark crypto market structure bill could be wrapped up in January, while on Friday Peter Brandt told Cointelegraph the US Clarity Act would aid the sector but won't redefine Bitcoin's value. Brandt also sees a potential move to $60,000 in Q3 2026, a 31% slide from $88,000 at publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

Google is backing Bitcoin miners with at least $5 billion in credit guarantees to fund AI data center pivots, rather than investing directly. Miners such as Cipher, IREN, TeraWulf and Hut 8 supply land and power while Fluidstack signs long-term leases; Google backs those obligations. Related miner stocks climbed 300–500% in 2025, and Google took warrants of 14% (TeraWulf) and 5.4% (Cipher).

On Dec. 18, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, marking a clear departure from its long-running ultra-loose policy. Bitcoin traded near $87,800 after the move, but analysts warned that a sustained tightening path in Japan, combined with possible U.S. rate cuts, could squeeze yen-funded leverage and dampen demand for risk assets, including crypto. Market data also indicated U.S. investors sold into the news, while some observers argued that Japan’s negative real rates and potential balance-sheet dynamics could still support Bitcoin over the longer term.

BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, ranked sixth by 2025 year-to-date inflows even as it posted a roughly 9.6% loss for the year. The fund has taken in about $25.4 billion in net inflows, outpacing several equity and commodity ETFs, including GLD. The snapshot was highlighted on December 19, 2025.

On Dec. 10, the Federal Reserve launched its reserve management purchases (RMP) program alongside a 25 basis point rate cut, with plans to buy about $40 billion of short-term Treasurys in the first month. Arthur Hayes argues in a recent Substack essay that RMP functions like quantitative easing, inflating fiat liquidity and strengthening the investment case for Bitcoin, gold and other scarce assets while eroding purchasing power for those without assets. Bitcoin traded near $92,695 on Dec. 10 and around $87,300 at the time of writing, as Polymarket traders priced a roughly 77% chance of no policy change at the Fed's January meeting.