Commodity

India’s MCX gold has pulled back from a record Rs 192,991 per 10 grams to about Rs 143,610, a 26% drop of nearly Rs 50,000. The move has been driven by a repricing of US Federal Reserve policy, with markets factoring in three rate hikes this year and nearly an 80% chance of another increase in December. A stronger US dollar and a brief jump in oil prices have also fed inflation concerns, weighing on bullion. International gold has fallen for four straight weeks, with COMEX support seen at $3,950–$4,000 and a possible move toward $3,600 if that range breaks.

The Philippine Department of Energy said pump prices will see a mixed adjustment from June 30, with gasoline allowed to increase by as much as P1.90 per liter. The possible uptick follows renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges in the Persian Gulf that revived shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed global oil prices higher, according to the agency. Oil prices had fallen sharply a week earlier on ceasefire expectations, but a return of geopolitical tensions has lifted Dubai crude and refined product prices. While local pump prices eased from last week, they remain well above levels seen before the late-February conflict.

A fresh round of missile and drone strikes over the weekend involving the U.S. and Iran hit U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, again disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and lifting oil prices on Monday. U.S. May CPI accelerated to 4.0% year-on-year, the highest in three years, driven by energy prices pushed up by the Middle East conflict. Markets are pricing in three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, with an about 77% chance of a December increase. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,067.99 an ounce, while silver and palladium declined and platinum edged higher.

Gold and silver extended their declines, with MCX gold for August down 2.06% on the week and MCX silver for September falling 6.4%. Overseas, Comex gold slid 3.5% to $4,096.3 per ounce, while silver dropped 10.7% to $59.67 per ounce. A stronger US dollar and a near-10% fall in crude oil eased inflation concerns and reduced bullion’s appeal as a hedge, while escalating US-Iran tensions provided only limited support, according to analysts cited by PTI.

Gold and silver could remain under pressure next week, as a stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields and a sharp pullback in crude oil—nearly 10%—dilute their inflation-hedge appeal. Last week, gold and silver futures fell 2.06% and 6.4%, while Comex gold slid 3.5% to $4,096.3 per ounce. Analysts said geopolitical risks may offer some support, but macro headwinds are expected to dominate.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 10 urged Indians to defer buying gold and taking overseas vacations for a year to conserve foreign exchange. In the same month, the government raised the import duty on gold and silver to 15% from 6%. By June 28, India’s 24K gold price had fallen by Rs 13,267 per 10 grams to Rs 1,39,873, and silver was down Rs 45,809 per kilogram to Rs 2,16,541. The measures have weighed on demand and import momentum for precious metals.

US consumer spending remained strong even as prices rose and new-home sales fell to the lowest level since the start of the year. President Donald Trump ordered the Department of Justice to examine gasoline prices after questioning why pump prices aren’t dropping as quickly as oil costs. The conflict involving Iran has kept energy costs elevated, and summer demand plus fuel-blend requirements have also slowed the decline in gasoline prices. Over the longer run, extreme heat and drought could lift global inflation.

South Korea’s average retail gasoline price fell below 2,000 won per litre on June 27 for the first time in nearly two months, reaching 1,991.1 won, while diesel dropped to 1,982.3 won per litre. The decline follows a government move to cut the fuel price ceiling, including a 150 won reduction in the cap for regular gasoline to 1,784 won per litre, after Dubai Crude slid 34.3% over the past month from US$98 per barrel on May 26 to $64.4 Thursday. Analysts expect pump prices to ease gradually over the next two to three weeks, though a weaker won and a rebound in refined product prices could limit further declines.

Gold prices in India stayed volatile on June 28, with 24K gold averaging around ₹14,400 per gram nationwide, about 4.6% below Monday’s high. After softer U.S. inflation data eased immediate concerns over a Federal Reserve rate hike, MCX gold futures (August) rose 0.75% while silver futures (July) gained more than 1%, according to IANS. Spot gold was highest in Chennai at ₹14,586 per gram, while Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata were mostly in the ₹14,395–14,410 per gram range. Silver was quoted at ₹240 per gram, unchanged from the previous day.

A market analysis published on June 27 said gold and silver futures logged sharp weekly losses, with international gold down 1.6% and silver down 8.8%, while India’s MCX gold futures fell 2.1% and MCX silver futures slid 6.4%. The analysis said both contracts have reached key support zones and are showing early signs of short-term stabilisation. It flagged ₹1,44,000 as a key level for gold futures, with scope to rebound toward ₹1,50,000 if it holds, and ₹2,23,400 for silver futures, with a potential move toward ₹2,40,000 if support remains intact.