Expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike to curb inflation strengthened, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield up to 4.32%. Traders lifted the implied odds of a hike as soon as next month to nearly 60% from 35%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.70%. U.S. stocks were mixed in midday trading, with the Dow edging higher and the Nasdaq lower.

Fed Chair Warsh said the economy appears to have strengthened and pledged to bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target. The S&P 500 rose 0.37%, the Dow added 0.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.18%. Chipmakers and AI infrastructure shares lagged, with Marvell Technology sliding 7% after a weaker-than-expected gross-margin outlook. The University of Michigan’s Aug 5-10 year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.3%, in line with expectations.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation is not meaningfully slowing and stressed policymakers must be confident it is moving toward the Fed’s 2% target, or the central bank still has “work to do.” After the remarks, short-term U.S. Treasury yields jumped and markets lifted the implied probability of a September rate hike to above 50%. Risk assets came under pressure, pulling bitcoin back below $80,000.

Fed Chair Warsh said inflation remains the central bank’s main focus even as the labor market cools. He reiterated that the Fed’s 2% inflation target is fixed. Warsh said multiple indicators show inflation is still above that goal, citing July readings of 3.7% for PCE inflation and 3.4% for CPI inflation.

U.S. stocks held steady in intraday trading, while bond markets quickly priced in higher odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.30%, and traders lifted the implied probability of a rate hike next month to 46%. Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks prompted investors to reassess the path of interest rates, after his tough stance on bringing inflation under control was seen as potentially leading to action.

South Korea’s DRAM export unit price surged to $92,183 per kilogram for Aug. 1–20, up 401% year on year and 12.5 times higher than in January 2023. At that level, 1 kg of DRAM is valued at roughly the same as 620 grams of 24K gold. Servers using Nvidia’s Rubin GPUs could see prices rise 15% to 17% because memory makes up a large share of the bill.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at the Jackson Hole central bankers’ meeting that inflation remains “concerning,” and said the central bank’s predominant focus should be on prices. The latest reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge was 3.7% this week, extending a run of more than five years above the 2% target. While the Fed has kept rates unchanged through 2026, a growing group of policymakers has argued for hikes to counter price pressures tied to U.S. President Donald Trump’s war on Iran and tariff policies.

India’s opening sugar stocks for the 2026-27 season are projected to fall to 3.5 million tonnes, the lowest level in a decade. Sugar output in 2025-26 is estimated to drop 27% year on year to about 28.1 million tonnes, while the average retail price is up 39% year on year and 31% month on month. Even after the government introduced a fortnightly allocation system and factory-gate prices fell 20%, the supply squeeze has persisted as the share diverted to ethanol has eased to about 9%, according to the Department of Consumer Affairs’ price monitoring cell.