The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December dropped to 31.6% after the release of October FOMC meeting minutes, with the likelihood of no rate change rising to 68.4%, CME FedWatch data show on Nov. 20. Before the minutes were published at 1:00 AM Beijing time, markets had priced in a 51.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December and a 48.9% probability of rates holding steady.

The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show a growing number of officials may support holding rates steady in December, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos said on Nov. 20. The minutes described policymakers' views using "many" rather than "several," suggesting broader backing for a pause. Timiraos said the December policy decision has become increasingly difficult to predict.

The Federal Reserve's October policy meeting minutes disclosed significant internal disagreement over the decision to cut interest rates, Jin10 reports. While many participants supported lowering the federal funds rate target range, several officials opposed the move, citing concerns that progress toward the 2% inflation target had stalled and warning that prolonged elevated inflation could lift long-term expectations. Most participants indicated further policy rate reductions might heighten risks of persistent inflation or signal a weakened commitment to the 2% target. Officials also cautioned that a sharp reassessment of AI investment could trigger disorderly stock market declines.

Multiple Federal Reserve officials highlighted the risk of disorderly stock market declines, particularly if artificial intelligence prospects are suddenly reassessed, minutes from the Nov. 20 meeting show. The SOMA manager recommended the Fed halt balance sheet reduction promptly, noting excessive repo market volatility could threaten interest rate control and Treasury market functioning, Jin10 reports.

Federal Reserve officials were divided over the December rate decision at their meeting, minutes released on Nov. 20 show. Several participants said holding rates steady through year-end would be appropriate given their outlook, Jin10 reports. Multiple officials indicated a December rate cut would be suitable.

Several Federal Reserve officials opposed the interest rate cut at the central bank's November meeting, minutes released on Nov. 20 show. Multiple participants said holding rates steady through year-end would better align with their economic projections, JinShi reports. The disclosure reveals internal division on monetary policy as the Fed balances inflation and growth concerns.

A whale address holding 17,804 ETH ($51.5 million) was liquidated on its long position on November 20, MLM monitoring data show. The whale had maintained the position for over three weeks while continuously adding to it using a martingale strategy during price declines. Across two accounts, the whale has incurred floating losses exceeding $10 million since late September.

Traders scaled back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December 10 policy meeting after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it lacks sufficient data to release the October employment report, Jin10 reports. Federal funds futures markets saw selling pressure following the announcement, with swap markets now pricing in only 6 basis points of easing for December and a cumulative 19 basis points through January, down from 11 basis points before Wednesday. The Fed's benchmark rate currently stands at 3.75% to 4%. Leah Traub, portfolio manager at Lord Abbett, noted the absence of October unemployment data and the delayed November release until after the Fed meeting reduces the likelihood of a cut given divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee.

Bitcoin long positions across major centralized exchanges face $563 million in cumulative liquidation risk if the price falls below $88,000, Coinglass data show on Nov. 20. Short positions would face $745 million in liquidations above $91,000. The liquidation chart reflects relative cluster importance rather than exact contract values, with higher bars indicating stronger expected market reactions from liquidity cascades at those price levels.