Bitcoin has dropped 36% from its $126,000 all-time high to $80,500 on Nov. 21, pushing the weekly relative strength index to levels last seen in January 2023 around $15,500–$17,000. Analysts highlight that Bitcoin's RSI and NVT Golden Cross, which has recently fallen near -0.6 and remains negative, both suggest a structurally undervalued market that could be approaching a key turning point.

Between November 3 and December 2, 2025, researchers examined over 400 Reddit posts that mentioned both Donald Trump and crypto to see how sentiment moved with Bitcoin’s market swings. The analysis found that although post counts were roughly split between positive and negative, engagement-weighted sentiment turned mildly negative, driven by a highly viral meltdown thread during the crash. When Trump was excluded and only general crypto posts were measured, overall sentiment shifted into positive territory even though the Bitcoin sell-off still pulled scores down in one week.

At its December meeting, the Bank of Japan lifted its short-term policy rate from 0.5% to about 0.75%, while Bitcoin traded under pressure near key technical levels. BTC has fallen roughly 7% over the past week as traders watch whether a break above the $88,200–$89,200 zone can open the way toward $90,000 and beyond. Analysts also highlight support around $84,500 and $80,600 as Bitcoin forms what looks like a consolidation base amid shifting global liquidity conditions.

After surging to an all-time high above $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 30% and trades well below $90,000. On December 19, 2025, analyst Merlijn The Trader, citing Raoul Pal, said this is a liquidity-driven "coil" rather than a crash. Pseudonymous analyst Wise Crypto floated a $600,000 target for 2026, contingent on macro shifts.

On December 19, 2025, a solo miner using NiceHash secured Bitcoin block #928,351 with less than $100 of rented hashpower, earning a 3.152 BTC reward valued at roughly $271,000. Recent on-chain data highlight several rare solo-mining block wins, even as JPMorgan reports four consecutive months of declining Bitcoin mining profitability amid a rising global hash rate.

Concerns about future quantum computing threats are pressuring Bitcoin's price and slowing some investment flows, as developers and investors diverge sharply on the risk. Adam Back and other cryptographers argue current quantum machines are far from breaking Bitcoin's protections, while figures like Jameson Lopp and Nic Carter highlight worst-case scenarios and capital diversification. Industry voices are calling for early planning around quantum-resistant cryptography and improved wallet practices ahead of any potential breakthrough.

On December 19, 2025, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin's market cycle has shifted toward bearish conditions as demand growth fell below trend since early October 2025. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs moved from accumulation to distribution in Q4 2025, with net holdings down about 24,000 BTC, while derivatives funding rates hit their lowest level since December 2023.

Fidelity's director of global macro Jurrien Timmer argues that Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle likely peaked at $125,000 on Oct. 6 and expects a downside phase into 2026, with key support between $65,000 and $75,000. Other analysts, including Delphi Digital's Tom Shaughnessy, foresee fresh all-time highs in 2026 driven by fundamental growth and expanding regulated investment products, even as social sentiment and smart money positioning turn short-term bearish.