Bitcoin’s 30-day simple moving average (30DSMA) for total daily transaction fees has fallen to 2.5 BTC per day, marking its lowest reading since March 2011.

Author: Shenchao TechFlow U.S. stocks: Four-day rally, with a high-stakes clock ticking Wall Street reopened Monday after a three-day break to digest two market-moving forces: a blockbuster March jobs report released during Friday's holiday, and a fresh ultimatum from President Trump tied to the Strait of Hormuz. March nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000, roughly triple Wall Street's 60,000 estimate. The unemployment rate eased to 4.3% from 4.4%. Hiring was led by healthcare (+76,000), boosted by 31,000 nurses returning after the Kaiser Permanente strike ended in February. Construction added 26,000 jobs, transportation and warehousing 21,000, and manufacturing 15,000. Federal government payrolls fell by 18,000, while financial services shed 15,000. Revisions drew attention as well: February payrolls were sharply revised from 92,000 to 133,000. That implies the February slowdown was more severe than previously understood. First-quarter average monthly job gains came in at 68,000—a pace that would have set off recession alarms two years ago. But in 2026, the bar may be different: Dallas Fed research argues that lower immigration and weaker labor-force participation have pushed the 'breakeven' job growth needed to keep unemployment stable close to zero. Markets leaned into that interpretation. The Dow rose 165 points (+0.36%) to 46,669.88. The S&P 500 gained 0.44% to 6,611.83, extending its longest streak since January with a fourth straight advance. The Nasdaq added 0.54% to 21,996.34. Stagflation signals show up in services The ISM services report delivered an uncomfortable mix. The headline index slipped to 54, still expansionary, but the prices gauge jumped to 70.7, the highest since October 2022. The employment component sank to 45.2, the lowest since December 2023. The implication: firms are pushing prices higher while cutting jobs. Treasuries sold off after the payrolls data, sending the 10-year yield to around 4.35%. The bond market message: expectations for rate cuts are getting squeezed. Morgan Stanley's Caldwell said the report gives the Fed more confidence to stay on hold, and markets have begun to assign a small probability to rate hikes later this year. Stocks in focus: Megacaps lift, Tesla pressured Big tech helped anchor the tape. Alphabet and Amazon each climbed more than 1%, and Micron Technology rose 3.2%. Boeing led the Dow with a 1.92% gain. Tesla fell 2.2%. JPMorgan analyst Brinkman reiterated his 'significantly undervalued' view with a $145 target, implying roughly 60% downside from current levels. He pointed to a disconnect: Tesla shares sit about 50% above June 2022 levels, when deliveries peaked, even as first-quarter deliveries were more than one million units below what analysts expected back then. Transport shares flashed caution. The Dow Transportation Index slid 9% over the past three sessions, its steepest three-day drop since the 'Liberation Day' selloff in April last year. United Airlines dropped more than 6%, Uber fell 3.5%, and XPO lost 3.5%, reinforcing concerns that growth risks remain elevated. Geopolitics: Trump threatens strikes if Strait of Hormuz not reopened Markets also tracked Trump's comments at Monday's press conference: if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Tuesday, the U.S. will destroy Iran's power plants and bridges. On Truth Social he wrote: 'Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day—combined. Unprecedented!' Diplomacy continued in parallel. Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and regional intermediaries are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire. Reuters said Iran and the U.S. received a peace proposal that includes an immediate ceasefire and reopening of the strait. No party had formally accepted the plan as of publication. Oil: A $119 shock, then a pullback When crude futures reopened Sunday night, both WTI and Brent briefly surged to $119, the highest since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. Unusually, the two benchmarks traded at parity; WTI typically carries a $3 to $7 discount to Brent, and the gap closing suggests extreme stress across the global pricing system. Ceasefire chatter later pressured prices. By the U.S. equity close Monday, WTI had slipped to around $112, still above last Thursday's $111.54 close. Traders are pricing a binary path. If an agreement—even an imprecise one—emerges before Tuesday at 8 a.m., oil could drop $20–$30 within 48 hours. If strikes hit Iranian infrastructure, prices could surge to $130 or even $150. Analysts also warn that even a rapid end to fighting may not quickly normalize the system: six weeks of disruption have inflicted structural damage on global refining and logistics capacity, which could take months to restore. Gold: Holding range as central banks keep buying Gold traded quietly between $4,660 and $4,680 per ounce on Monday. With a major escalation-or-resolution window approaching, the metal neither broke higher nor sold off—it waited. After hitting a record $5,595 in January, gold has pulled back nearly 17%. The $4,600–$4,700 area is increasingly viewed as a base. State Street's monthly gold monitor outlines a base-case range of $4,750–$5,500 (50% probability) and a bull-case range of $5,500–$6,250 (35% probability), while calling $4,400–$4,600 'strong support.' A longer-term shift continues in the background: the U.S. dollar's share of global FX reserves has slipped to around 40%, the lowest since 1994, while gold's share has climbed to around 30%, the highest since 1991. Crypto: Relief bounce on ceasefire talk, but positioning stays defensive Cryptocurrencies posted their strongest rally in weeks. CoinDesk data shows Bitcoin rose about 3.5% to roughly $69,700, briefly trading above $69,200 intraday. Ether gained 4.8% to $2,149, lifting total crypto market value back to $2.45 trillion. The spark was ceasefire speculation, but market structure suggests short covering dominated. Open interest fell 8% during the rebound, funding rates stayed negative at 0.003%, and the perpetual-futures annualized premium compressed to 0.12%, the lowest since March 2024. Volume remains 18% below the 30-day average. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) said it bought another $330 million of Bitcoin between April 1 and 5, reinforcing its status as the largest corporate BTC holder. Strategy shares rose 4.7% Monday versus a 3.7% gain in Bitcoin. The company now holds roughly $58 billion in Bitcoin, even as BTC is down about 20% year to date. The Fear & Greed Index ticked up from 8 to 13, still in 'extreme fear' for a seventh straight week below 25. Historically, since 2018, when the index has fallen under 15, Bitcoin's median 90-day return has been 38.4%. Near-term technicals remain decisive: resistance sits near $71,500, repeatedly rejected. A confirmed ceasefire and a sharp oil pullback could open a break higher; renewed conflict would put $65,000 support back in play. Bottom line: 48 hours, one dominant question As the U.S.-Iran conflict entered the final countdown of its sixth week, markets treated it as a single cross-asset trade: • U.S. stocks: The S&P 500 rose 0.44% to 6,611.83 for a fourth straight gain. Payrolls beat expectations, but ISM services showed rising prices and weakening employment—a stagflation warning. • Oil: WTI spiked to $119 Sunday night and cooled to about $112 as Trump's 'power plant day' deadline collided with ceasefire rumors. • Gold: Held $4,660–$4,680, with central bank demand underpinning the broader trend. • Crypto: Bitcoin rebounded to about $69,700 on short covering. Strategy added $330 million in BTC. Fear remains extreme at 13. The market is focused on one outcome ahead of 8 p.m. Tuesday: a ceasefire deal or a strike order. A 45-day ceasefire could drive oil back toward $80–$90 within days, spark a risk rally, and lift Bitcoin toward $75,000. If Trump follows through on 'Power Plant Day,' oil could push toward $130, the S&P 500 could revisit its yearly low, and crypto could see another wave of panic selling. The answer arrives within 48 hours.

Onchain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain) reported that Bitcoin mining firm MARA transferred an additional 250 BTC about three hours ago, worth roughly $17.37 million. Earlier, MARA sold 15,133 BTC between March 4 and March 25, 2026, at an average price of about $72,689, for total proceeds of around $1.1 billion.

Odaily Planet Daily cited Lookonchain data showing Bitcoin mining firm MARA moved an additional 250 BTC about three hours ago, worth roughly $17.37 million. Earlier figures indicate the company sold a total of 15,133 BTC between March 4 and March 25, valued at about $1.1 billion.

BlockBeats reported on April 7 that Lookonchain data shows cryptocurrency mining company MARA transferred another 250 BTC about three hours earlier, worth roughly $17.37 million. The company previously sold 15,133 BTC—about $1.1 billion—between March 4 and March 25.

Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms appears to have offloaded an additional 500 BTC, valued at roughly $34.87 million. Over the past five days, the company has deposited a combined 1,500 BTC—about $102.3 million—into NYDIG.

BlockBeats reported that on April 7, Ethena said its independent risk committee has approved an expansion of USDe collateral types. The company said the move diversifies collateral across four areas that it views as extensions of its current business: (1) institutionally backed, collateralized stablecoin lending, where borrower collateral is held with a third-party institutional custodian; (2) increased exposure to real-world assets beyond U.S. Treasuries (T-bills) by adding other high-quality, liquid credit assets; (3) equity and commodity basis trading, applying its delta-neutral hedging framework from crypto to traditional markets; and (4) prime lending for trading institutions, offering funding via overcollateralized loans with counterparties taking on the platform's risk.

Huoxing Finance reported that CryptoQuant said on April 7 that Bitcoin's network activity index has rebounded after months of declines, with daily transactions rising to about 615,000—the highest since November 2024. The move was reflected across several indicators, including active addresses, transaction counts and UTXOs. CryptoQuant also noted that fees remain low, a backdrop that may be encouraging exchanges and large holders to consolidate UTXOs and reorganize funds, suggesting the spike is partly driven by operational activity rather than purely organic demand.

According to Huo Xing Finance, on-chain watcher Yujin reported that Spark transferred 414,000 USDS to its buyback address on April 7, marking the start of the second month of SPK buybacks. In the first month, Spark spent 572,000 USDS to repurchase 26.66 million SPK. The 414,000 USDS allocated for month two has now been deposited to the buyback address, and the program is underway.