BlackRock expects only measured Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2026 as policy moves toward neutral. The December 2025 dot plot shows a median path from about 3.6 percent in 2025 to roughly 3.4 percent in 2026, implying one to two 25 bp cuts. The firm's baseline centers on 25–50 bp of easing, conditional on incoming data.

On Thursday, China's yuan moved through the ¥7-per-dollar mark for the first time since September 2024, with offshore trading at 6.9964 and the onshore rate closing at 7.0067. The currency has risen more than 3.8% this year alongside a stronger central bank fixing, while developer China Vanke faces renewed pressure as holders of a 3.7 billion yuan bond vote on repayment delay options. Analysts say the yuan remains weak relative to fundamentals, and Vanke continues to manage about $50 billion in interest-bearing debt as it negotiates with creditors.

Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said Japan will set a ¥122.3 trillion budget for the fiscal year starting April 2026, up 6.3% from FY2025's ¥115.2 trillion. She plans to issue ¥29.6 trillion in new bonds, trimming debt reliance to 24.2% from 24.9%, while allocations rise for social security and defense amid persistent inflation.

The crypto derivatives market in 2025 shifted decisively toward institutional participation, with total trading volume around $85.70 trillion and average daily turnover near $264.5 billion. CME Group overtook Binance in Bitcoin futures open interest in 2024 and narrowed the gap in Ethereum derivatives by 2025, while OKX, Bybit and Bitget retained notable market share.

The Bank of Lithuania set 31 December 2025 as the final deadline for crypto-asset service providers to obtain MiCA authorisation. After that date, unlicensed operations will be deemed illegal financial activity and can be punished by up to four years of imprisonment. More than 370 firms are registered, around 120 are active, and about 30 have applied for licences.

On December 25, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is modestly higher, with total market capitalization up about 0.7% to roughly $3.04 trillion and 24-hour volume near $69.9 billion. Bitcoin is trading close to $87,400 while Ethereum hovers just under $2,930, as sentiment remains cautious with a Fear and Greed Index reading of 28 and continued outflows from US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 set a new high at 6,920, adding $18 trillion in value since the April 2025 bottom. Gold and Silver also reached records, while Bitcoin trades around $88,000 amid calls it could reach $150,000 in 2026. Some analysts discuss potential rotation from stocks and metals into major crypto assets.

On Dec. 25, Binance's BTC/USD1 pair briefly registered an abnormal low of $24,111.22 before rebounding toward the $87,000 area, highlighting how thin liquidity on a single market can create a flash-crash style wick. XRP's weekly chart is nearing a death cross with traders watching a potential move down toward the 200-week moving average near $1.3762, while Cardano's historical January performance shows positive average and median returns that keep a bullish seasonal narrative in play.