Bitcoin climbed to a one-month peak of $74,000 on Thursday, supported by renewed US buying interest reflected in a sharply higher Coinbase Bitcoin Premium. The move, which coincided with ETF inflows, quickly reversed as the price slipped back below $71,000 by Friday and CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index stayed at 10/100, signaling a continued bear market. Analysts also cited macro uncertainty and upcoming economic data as reasons any optimism remains constrained.

Bitcoin’s price retreated from an earlier high of $74,000 this week to trade around $68,000, marking a 4% decline over the past 24 hours. The drop followed a weaker-than-expected US jobs report showing a loss of 92,000 jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate in February, alongside new threats from President Trump directed at Iran and Cuba. In contrast to BTC’s pullback, US oil prices surged above $92 per barrel to their highest level since September 2023 after Trump’s latest comments.

Santiment has observed that Bitcoin adoption is increasing, with non-empty wallets reaching a record 58.45 million and exchange balances dropping to their lowest level since December 2017. While spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recently saw a $1.45 billion inflow on February 25 and BTC briefly moved above $70,000, retail inflows have contracted and price remains slightly lower over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin traded in a tight range on Monday as it hovered around $68,198, while analysts assessed nearly $801.87 million of inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the final week of February. Several on-chain and market analysts pointed to parallels with previous cycles, key support levels around $66,000 to $64,000, and contrasting liquidation data at $80,000 and $57,000. These developments have fueled debate over whether Bitcoin will see a short-term correction before any sustained rebound.

Bitcoin briefly traded above $73,000 over the past day, while multiple on-chain indicators from Swissblock and CryptoQuant suggest it may be transitioning out of peak negative momentum. Demand contraction has eased, US spot ETF inflows have turned positive, and selling pressure from both traders and long-term holders has declined, yet resistance zones around $79,000 and $90,000 still define whether this move becomes a lasting regime shift.

Bitcoin recently pushed above $70,000, prompting debate over whether the move signals a new major uptrend or just another step in a long-term bottoming phase. Analyst CrypFlow, in a technical study using multi‑year trendlines and the Stochastic RSI, argues that Bitcoin is forming a major cycle low along a trendline dating back to 2018 and retesting the former $69,000 resistance as support. Based on how long the Stochastic RSI historically stays below zero, the analyst suggests a double‑bottom structure into October 2026 could precede the next full‑scale bull run.

On March 6, Bitcoin traded close to $70,000 as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices higher and pressured global risk assets. Despite the volatility and nearly $228 million in ETF outflows on March 5, on-chain data showed net BTC flows to exchanges remained negative, with around 6,500 BTC leaving trading platforms over the week. Activity on major venues such as Binance intensified, with roughly 425,000 BTC in 30‑day turnover against reserves of about 660,000 BTC, suggesting heightened speculative trading even as long‑term holders moved coins into cold storage.

During the current US/Israel-Iran escalation, Brent crude has climbed to $85.49 from a $73 pre-strike level, and banks have modeled scenarios in which prices extend to $100, $125, or even $150. If elevated oil persists beyond roughly 50 days and pushes inflation higher, analysts warn the Federal Reserve may delay or cancel planned rate cuts, turning Bitcoin's recent "Fed pivot" tailwind into a major liquidity headwind. Under these stress cases, estimates suggest Bitcoin could fall between 5% and 45%, with additional pressure from rising energy costs eroding miner profitability.