Bitcoin is trading just above its True Market Mean cost basis, with over 25% of circulating supply now underwater. The price structure mirrors conditions seen in early 2022. Net capital inflows remain positive at $8.69 billion monthly but significantly below July's $64.3 billion peak, according to Glassnode data.

Bitcoin climbed back toward $93,000 after traders lifted December Federal Reserve rate cut probabilities into the mid-to-high 80% range and the dollar posted its ninth consecutive daily decline. Market attention has also shifted to potential successors for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term concludes in May 2026, with former Coinbase advisor Kevin Hassett emerging as a leading candidate, according to Reuters.

Strategy, which holds 650,000 BTC, is considering Bitcoin lending services that may provide inventory to hedge funds shorting its reserves. CEO Phong Le confirmed discussions with banks on Dec. 2, shifting the firm from passive custody to active credit operations. The move introduces counterparty risk and could compress the company's stock premium to net asset value.

Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe projects Bitcoin could reach $105,000 this month, though a correction to $88,000–$90,000 may occur first. Bitcoin recently recovered to $94,000, liquidating short positions and renewing interest in the $100,000 threshold. Van de Poppe suggests that while a direct rally above $92,000 is possible, current market sentiment makes a pullback more likely before sustained upward momentum.

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, reduced its acquisition to 9.1K BTC in November 2025, down 93% from 134.5K BTC purchased in November 2024, according to CryptoQuant data. Through early December 2025, the company acquired just 135 BTC, marking one of its slowest buying periods in recent years. The decline follows a consistent downward trend throughout 2025, with monthly purchases falling from 59.7K BTC in December 2024 to current levels.

Strategy's management has disclosed that Bitcoin holdings may be sold if balance-sheet conditions deteriorate, departing from its accumulation-only approach. The statement comes as MSCI conducts a consultation on index treatment of firms with digital asset exposure, with feedback due by January 2026. Bitcoin traded near $92,000, up approximately 5% over 24 hours.

Bitcoin's Bollinger Bandwidth indicator has dropped below 100 for the first time since November 2023, according to macro strategist Gert van Lagen. The previous occurrence preceded a four-month rally in which the cryptocurrency doubled in value. Bitcoin is currently testing resistance near $93,000 as traders monitor for potential breakout momentum.

Gary Gensler, who recently stepped down as SEC Chairman, distinguished Bitcoin from thousands of alternative cryptocurrencies that lack fundamental value. His remarks came as Vanguard reversed its crypto ban, enabling 50 million clients to access spot ETFs and generating $1 billion in trading volume within the first 30 minutes.