Bitcoin has fallen more than 30% from its all-time high in early October, briefly dropping below $81,000 on Friday before recovering approximately $5,000. Analyst Ali Martinez notes that historical pricing patterns over the past seven years suggest BTC could potentially decline to between $55,900 and $44,700. Exchange data show approximately 20,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges over the past week, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows exceeding $1.2 billion.

Strategy, which holds $56.23 billion in Bitcoin treasury assets, has seen its MSTR token enter a bearish phase with a fractal pattern resembling its 2021–2022 downtrend. The token has pulled back 33% from Bitcoin's all-time high alongside insider selling activity. Historical correlations suggest potential continued weakness extending into late 2026, according to chart analysis.

Bitcoin recovered to retest $85,000 after falling to $83,540 in the past 24 hours, though it remains down 11% over the past week. Ethereum stabilized above $2,700 following a decline that broke through the $3,000 support zone. Traders are monitoring the $2,800 resistance level for Ethereum's next move.

Bitcoin has broken down from a rising wedge pattern and entered a key support zone, marking a 33% decline from its all-time high. The magnitude of the drawdown has historically preceded extended periods of weakness and heightened volatility in prior market cycles. Momentum indicators show no clear signs of bullish pressure returning, while trading volume remains subdued.

Bitcoin fell below the 730-day simple moving average at approximately $81,250 on November 22, according to cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez. This technical threshold has historically preceded extended downward or sideways price action in previous market cycles. The asset was trading around $84,239 at press time, down over 11% for the week.

Bitcoin may see continued decline despite briefly rallying above $85,000, according to market strategists. The cryptocurrency remains under bearish pressure after breaking a multi-year ascending channel, with analysts expecting prolonged sideways movement before directional clarity emerges. The loss of support that held since 2023 forces traders to identify new foundational levels.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) confronts a structural challenge as MSCI Inc. reviews whether to reclassify the firm as a Digital Asset Treasury vehicle rather than an operating company. The potential reclassification could trigger forced selling of between $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion by passive funds tracking MSCI equity benchmarks. Simultaneously, the firm's stock trades near parity with its Bitcoin holdings' net asset value, eroding the premium that historically enabled its capital-raising strategy.

Short-term Bitcoin holders are experiencing unprecedented unrealized losses, with approximately 99% of recently acquired coins trading below purchase price. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to its lowest level in Bitcoin's history, below readings during the FTX collapse and COVID-19 crash. Institutional selling on Coinbase has reached record volumes, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.