Options data from laevitas.ch show two‑month BTC puts priced 13% above comparable calls on Thursday, signaling a defensive stance. Laevitas also tracked neutral‑to‑bearish strategies dominating Deribit in the past 48 hours, while Farside Investors reports $910 million in U.S.-listed spot ETF outflows since Feb. 11. BTC was rejected near $71,000 on Sunday yet held above $66,000 through the week.

Monthly Lightning Network volume reached an estimated $1.1 billion in November 2025 across 5.2 million transfers. The report notes 2025 transaction counts trail 2023’s peak of 6.6 million and projects new growth as individuals and businesses test AI-driven payment agents, alongside rising institutional use and a capacity of 5,606 BTC in December 2025.

Bitcoin is on track for a fifth straight red monthly candle, with this month down 15%, according to CoinGlass. Analysts note that 2018/19 saw six red months followed by over 316% gains in five months, while 2022 delivered four red quarters and a 64% annual drawdown. Others on X argue the current setup is structurally different.

Bitcoin’s monthly Bollinger Bands have compressed to their narrowest reading on record, a setup analysts associate with powerful follow-up moves. Some chartists highlight that similar volatility squeezes have historically preceded major rallies, although others point to a looming 50- and 200-period moving average death cross and elevated retail long positioning as downside risks. Additional on-chain data shows a deeply negative short-term Sharpe ratio and repeated profit-taking above $70,000, suggesting the market is approaching a key inflection zone.

As of February 19, the United Arab Emirates has mined $453.8 million worth of Bitcoin and is holding these coins with an unrealized gross profit of about $344 million under a no-selling strategy, according to Arkham Intelligence. In contrast, Bhutan, which once accumulated over 13,000 BTC through secret mining, has recently been selling its holdings, including a $22.4 million transfer in the past week. Other nations such as El Salvador and Ethiopia are also scaling state-linked Bitcoin mining and infrastructure efforts.

On-chain data from Arkham indicates UAE-linked Bitcoin miners have produced about $453.6 million worth of BTC and kept most of it on-chain. Arkham also reports no significant wallet outflows over the past four months. The MIREV revenue gauge on TradingView remains above capitulation levels, suggesting miners are not facing acute stress.

Public Bitcoin miners are preparing roughly 30 GW of AI-oriented power capacity, nearly triple the 11 GW they run today, to navigate tighter margins after the 2024 halving. Some operators, including HIVE Digital, report growing AI/HPC revenue, while investors urge faster pivots; market volatility since Q4 saw Bitcoin drop below $60,000 before stabilizing in February.

Bitcoin traded in a narrowing band around intraday lows of $65,620 on Thursday while cross‑crypto liquidations over 24 hours reached $210 million. Analysts highlighted weak bounces, clustered liquidation levels between $64,000–$71,000 and four weeks of fund outflows totaling $3.74 billion as signs of persistently bearish sentiment.