Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $86,129 after a sharp decline. Analyst Joao Wedson says the drop stemmed from an unprecedented imbalance where long contracts vastly outnumbered shorts, creating excessive bullish leverage that destabilized the market. Current positioning shows approximately 71,000 BTC in long contracts versus 27,900 BTC in shorts.

Bitcoin recovered to $86,100 on Sunday after falling to $80,500, rising 2.5% in 24 hours as Strategy CEO Michael Saylor disputed concerns over MSCI's potential index removal. MSCI announced on October 10 that companies holding over 50% of assets in digital currencies may be delisted from its equity indices. JPMorgan warned Strategy could face up to $8.8 billion in outflows if multiple index providers follow suit, according to a research report published Wednesday.

On-chain data shows approximately 71,000 BTC in long positions versus 27,900 BTC in shorts across 19 exchanges, according to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson. The disparity has triggered cascading liquidations as Bitcoin breached key support levels at $100,000 and $90,000. Bitcoin traded at $86,251 at the reported time, up 3% over 24 hours.

Michael Saylor issued a four-word statement as Bitcoin dropped to $80,600: "I Won't Back Down." Strategy holds 649,870 BTC at an average cost of $74,430, maintaining a 16.67% profit despite the decline. MSTR stock fell toward $170, erasing most of its premium over Bitcoin holdings.

Social media narratives frequently oversimplify relationships between M2 money supply, the U.S. dollar, and Bitcoin price movements. Analysis of 12 months of daily data shows liquidity measures and the DXY index affect Bitcoin through distinct time lags and regime-dependent correlations rather than direct causality. M2 demonstrates an 84-day correlation window, while dollar strength operates through faster mechanisms, with both relationships shifting around market cycle phases.

Bitcoin traded near $86,036, up 2.84% in 24 hours, after testing the $80,500–$84,000 demand zone. The RSI fell to 26, marking one of the deepest oversold readings in 2025. Daily candles show long lower wicks, indicating slowing sell pressure at structural support levels.

Large Bitcoin holders accumulated over 26,300 BTC valued at approximately $2.3 billion as the weekly Relative Strength Index dropped to 33, its lowest level in nearly three years. Data show entities holding more than 10,000 BTC per wallet moved into net accumulation following a sharp market correction. ARK Invest deployed roughly $39 million into crypto-related equities on November 19–20, 2025, while U.K. government holdings tracked by Arkham Intelligence stand near 61,245 BTC, valued at $5.18 billion.

Bitcoin mining difficulty reached a record 155 trillion on November 3rd, while hashprice fell to an all-time low of $34.49 per petahash per second, data show. Mining profitability declined to $0.0334 per terahash per second daily, the lowest level since 2023. The combination of record difficulty and depressed hashprice has compressed operator margins across the sector.