Bitcoin was trading at approximately $85,143 on November 21, positioned well above key on-chain valuation bands that have historically marked cycle bottoms near $55,900 and $44,700, data show. Analyst Peter Schiff warned that ETF-driven liquidity could enable early holders to exit positions and pressure prices lower. Trader Rekt Fencer outlined a scenario projecting a retracement toward $75,000 before a potential rally to $130,000.

Bitcoin climbed 2% after trading in deeply oversold territory, with momentum indicators on the daily chart showing potential exhaustion of selling pressure. The asset remains below declining moving averages, maintaining bearish trend structure. Oversold conditions may enable a relief bounce if key support levels hold and buying interest returns.

Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser has predicted BTC will hit a fresh record in 2025, even as the cryptocurrency trades near $80,600 after falling roughly 32% from its $129,000 peak. His forecast coincides with Bitcoin ETFs recording $238 million in net inflows in a single session on November 23, 2025, despite monthly outflows exceeding $4.3 billion. The divergence between declining prices and positive ETF flows suggests institutional investors may be accumulating positions during the correction.

Bitcoin fell below its 730-day simple moving average near $81,250, marking the first breach of this multi-cycle support level in the current cycle. Market strategist Ali Martinez noted that this metric historically separates bull markets from bear phases. The $85,000–$86,000 range now represents critical resistance that will determine whether the asset recovers or extends losses toward the high-$70,000s.

Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock's head of digital assets, said institutional investors focus on Bitcoin's store-of-value characteristics rather than its potential as payment infrastructure. He described the payments use case as speculative, requiring substantial scaling advancements including Lightning Network development. Meanwhile, Mitchnick noted stablecoins have already achieved significant traction in value transfer and payments.

Macro analyst Lyn Alden has dismissed expectations of an imminent major Bitcoin downturn, arguing current market conditions lack the euphoric sentiment that typically precedes severe corrections. She suggests Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle is losing influence as institutional participation and macroeconomic factors increasingly shape price movements. Alden cautioned against assuming guaranteed rallies following declines, stating no one is owed a bull market.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded nearly $1.2 billion in weekly outflows, marking the third-largest withdrawal episode since launch 22 months ago, data show. The redemptions persisted through Thursday before reversing Friday, when Fidelity's FBTC led inflows with $108 million. November's cumulative outflows reached $3.79 billion by month-end, matching February's record.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded outflows nearing $1.2 billion over the past week as Bitcoin declined to $82,000—a 33% drop from its early-October high above $126,000. November withdrawals are approaching $3.8 billion, nearing the worst monthly performance since these products launched nearly two years ago. The selling pressure coincides with reduced Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and concerns over global economic stability.