Since October 13, 2025, Bitcoin short-term holders have been selling coins below their purchase prices, with the weekly STH SOPR stuck under 1.0 and a Z-Score at -0.58. As of January 11, the 7-day STH SOPR stands at 0.994 and the daily value at 0.9817, indicating a loss-dominated environment that may only shift once the 7-day average climbs back above 1.0 and the Z-Score turns positive.

Bitcoin slid below $92,000 and then bounced from a low near $89,225, reclaiming $90,000 and $90,500. It is trading above $91,000 and the 100-hour SMA, but immediate hurdles sit around $92,000 and $92,650. A push past $93,500 could open a path toward $94,000–$95,500, while failure near $92,500 risks another pullback.

On January 11, 2026, Michael Saylor posted a brief message that rekindled speculation about Strategy's next Bitcoin purchase. By January 12, 2026, the company's Bitcoin-centric balance sheet was back under the spotlight, while the asset traded in a tight range and analysts monitored nearby resistance and support.

Bitcoin has been capped below $94k after its recent rejection and is now moving in a narrow range between $90k and $93k, with spot price around $90,739 and a modest daily decline. While Bitfinex whales are aggressively closing long positions, a pattern that previously preceded a 50% rally to a $112k all‑time high, market liquidity is now clustered in short liquidation zones near $91.8k–$92.2k and $93.8k–$94.2k, and the long/short ratio has stayed under 1 for five straight days. With RSI sliding from 65 to 52 and demand weakening, a sustained break above $94k could trigger a short squeeze, whereas losing $90k support may open the way to $88k and heavier long liquidations.

Bitcoin has remained below its 50‑week Simple Moving Average for nine consecutive weeks, raising caution as extended periods under this level have historically preceded 50%–70% pullbacks. BTC was around $90,352 with no daily change, and a sustained reclaim of the 50‑week average would improve the outlook. If history rhymes, a move toward $50,000 is possible.

In 2025, Bitcoin ended the year in negative territory for the third time, leading traders to question whether its long-observed 4-year cycle is breaking down. CZ has highlighted a potential "super cycle", pointing to Wells Fargo's $383 million Bitcoin purchase in January 2026 and easing U.S. regulatory priorities as key drivers. While some analysts expect a topping pattern and bear market, others argue the long-term structure remains intact, with the next cycle low possibly arriving in October 2026.

On 11 January 2026, the United Arab Emirates was highlighted as one of the governments actively sponsoring Bitcoin mining, using its natural gas resources to power state-linked facilities. Reports state that these operations, conducted through Citadel Mining, have accumulated over 6,300 BTC while operating under a framework that treats mining as strategic infrastructure but enforces strict land-use and energy regulations. The UAE’s strategy places it alongside countries such as El Salvador, Bhutan and Iran, which also integrate Bitcoin mining into broader energy and economic policies.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao stated on Twitter that major US banks are "loading up" on Bitcoin as retail investors sell. Reported positions include Wells Fargo's $383 million BTC purchase, Morgan Stanley's $270 million in GBTC, and Goldman Sachs holding $1.3 billion in BlackRock's ETF plus $300 million in Fidelity's product.