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Liam 'Akiba' Wright

M2 Money Supply and Dollar Index Influence Bitcoin Through Lagged, Regime-Dependent Correlations

Social media narratives frequently oversimplify relationships between M2 money supply, the U.S. dollar, and Bitcoin price movements. Analysis of 12 months of daily data shows liquidity measures and the DXY index affect Bitcoin through distinct time lags and regime-dependent correlations rather than direct causality. M2 demonstrates an 84-day correlation window, while dollar strength operates through faster mechanisms, with both relationships shifting around market cycle phases.
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