Bitcoin stays in a capitulation band as analysts eye a $40K–$50K bottom in late 2026

On Oct. 2, 2025, Bitcoin set an all‑time high at $126,000. On Feb. 6, Glassnode recorded a long‑term holder net‑position change drop of 245,000 BTC, followed by average reductions of 170,000 BTC, while CryptoQuant’s MVRV Adaptive Z‑Score hit -2.66. Several analysts now project a potential bottom around $40,000–$50,000 in Q4 2026.