Bitcoin Bottom Signal Returns As On-Chain Risk, ETF Outflows And Macro Headwinds Shape Outlook

A historically reliable Bitcoin bottom indicator has appeared again, with Swissblock data showing BTC has stayed 25 straight days in an “extreme high risk” zone, longer than the 23-day stretch before the 2023 rebound of more than 130% the following year. However, weakening demand, negative 90-day ETF flows of about negative $2.06 billion and inflation readings near 2.9%–3.4% are prompting analysts to warn that any recovery could be slower and more volatile than the surge seen in 2024. Key levels flagged include $45,000 as a pivotal area, with $30,000 and $16,000 highlighted as deeper historical supports.