Bitcoin Options Data Signal 30% Chance of Drop Below $80,000 by June 26

Bitcoin options on Derive.xyz imply a 30% chance the price falls below $80,000 by June 26 and only a 19% probability it rises above $120,000 in the same period, according to Derive.xyz Head of Research Sean Dawson. The options market is clearly skewed to the downside, with recent geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland-related plans and renewed tariff concerns coinciding with Bitcoin's drop from $95,000 to $91,000, Dawson said. Open interest in put options on Derive and Deribit is clustered at strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000, indicating traders are positioning for Bitcoin to potentially test the mid-$75,000 range.