Tiger Research Keeps $143,000 Bitcoin Target as Macro Tailwinds Fade and On-Chain Signals Normalize

Tiger Research says Bitcoin's long-term upside case remains intact and reiterates a 12-month target of $143,000, even as macro support cools and network fundamentals lose some momentum. The firm notes global liquidity is still expanding, institutional flows have begun to turn, and on-chain indicators have moved out of Q1's panic zone. At the same time, an oil-driven inflation shock tied to the Iran conflict has reduced the Federal Reserve's room to cut rates as quickly as markets had expected. Macro conditions: supportive, but slower Global M2 has climbed to a record $13.44 trillion, yet Bitcoin has fallen about 27% since Tiger Research's Q1 report, with early-April prices averaging roughly $70,500. The report attributes the gap between rising liquidity and falling prices to where that liquidity is coming from. More than 60% of M2 growth across China, the U.S., the eurozone and Japan over the past year is said to have come from China, driven by the People's Bank of China's reserve-requirement cuts and a shift to a more dovish stance in Q1. The U.S. accounts for about 10% of the increase. Tiger Research argues that Chinese liquidity has limited pathways into Bitcoin due to domestic crypto trading restrictions. Indirect channels via Hong Kong and Singapore are seen as serving mainly institutional allocations, meaning the portion of global liquidity that actually reaches the Bitcoin market is shrinking. Iran conflict complicates the Fed's easing path With U.S. dollar liquidity still the dominant driver for Bitcoin, the report flags the Iran conflict as a key headwind. After U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, pushing Brent crude to $118 per barrel in mid-March and lifting Dubai crude to a record $166. The surge fed into U.S. inflation, with March CPI rising to 3.3% from 2.4% in February, the highest level in two years. Tiger Research says this squeezed the Fed's flexibility, and the March dot plot cut expected 2026 rate cuts to one. By mid-April, parts of the Strait of Hormuz had reopened, oil fell back to around $90, and core CPI held at 2.6%, suggesting the shock has not fully spread through the broader economy. The report also notes that President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair at the end of January and that Senate confirmation hearings are in progress. Powell's term ends May 15, and Tiger Research expects a dovish bias to persist even if the total number of cuts is reduced. Institutional flows: early signs of a turn Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their worst monthly outflows since launch in November 2025 and recorded five straight months of net outflows. Tiger Research says the trend shifted in March, when monthly net flows turned positive. By mid-April, year-to-date net flows were positive again and total AUM had rebounded to $96.5 billion. On the corporate side, accumulation is accelerating among existing participants. Strategy bought 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion during April 13–19, lifting total holdings to 815,061 BTC. The report adds that the number of companies joining the buying trend has not expanded meaningfully. Macro score cut to +20% Tiger Research says structural supports—liquidity expansion, an easing bias in policy, improving institutional flows and progress on the U.S. CLARITY Act—remain in place. Oil shocks and a slower pace of Fed cuts offset part of that support, leading the firm to revise its Q2 macro indicator down by 5 percentage points from Q1 to +20%. On-chain: from undervaluation toward early equilibrium Key on-chain indicators including MVRV-Z, NUPL and aSOPR have moved out of Q1 panic territory and into what the report describes as an early recovery zone. Tiger Research does not expect the type of sharp rally often seen in panic rebounds, but says historical data shows average one-year returns from this zone have remained in double digits, keeping risk-reward attractive. The report highlights that the short-term holder (STH) cost basis is falling, consistent with speculative capital exiting while new buyers accumulate at lower prices. This, it argues, lines up with the return of ETF inflows and large purchases by Strategy, reinforcing the view that institutions are averaging in during discount phases. Two price levels are framed as pivotal. The key downside risk is $54,000, described as the network-wide average cost basis; a break below it would place the network in an unrealized loss position and could act as an extreme-case bottom. The strongest resistance is $78,000, the average entry cost of long-term holders. With Bitcoin around $70,500, the market sits about 13% below that level. Tiger Research says a clean break above $78,000 would be a primary signal of a short-term trend reversal. Usage data: transactions up, participation down In the first half of April, daily average transactions reached 564,000, up 37.9% year over year. The report cautions that underlying activity looks weaker: active addresses fell to 428,000 (down 13.2% year over year and 4.2% quarter over quarter) and average transaction size dropped to 1.19 BTC from 1.80 BTC in the prior quarter, a 34.1% decline. Tiger Research interprets this as repeated small transfers by a limited user set, with much of the volume likely tied to mechanical flows such as exchange deposits rather than broad-based economic use. BTCFi thesis weakens; fundamentals reset to 10% Tiger Research had held fundamental metrics at 0% in Q1 on expectations of BTCFi expansion. Entering Q2, it says that case has weakened. Citing The Block's "2026 Digital Assets Outlook," the report notes Bitcoin L2 TVL is down 74% year to date, while total BTCFi TVL has slipped 10% and represents just 0.46% of Bitcoin's total supply (91,332 BTC). While Babylon and Lombard have grown, the broader ecosystem has contracted. As a result, the firm revises Q2 fundamentals to a baseline of 10%. Target reiterated: $143,000 and roughly 2x upside Using a TVM framework, Tiger Research sets a neutral baseline of $132,500 based on the early-April 2026 average price. Applying a 10% fundamental adjustment and a +20% macro adjustment yields a 12-month target of $143,000. That is about 23% below the Q1 target of $185,500, but the firm says the pullback in spot prices has increased the upside from current levels. On its average-price calculation, upside expands from +93% in Q1 to +103% in Q2. Tiger Research stresses that the downward revision reflects slower momentum, not a bearish shift, arguing that the macro trend and on-chain structure still support a long-term bull market. It highlights three short-term conditions to watch: a decisive move above the $78,000 global mid-term equilibrium level, continued ETF net inflows, and a Fed policy shift enabled by easing geopolitical risk. If all three align, the firm says the $143,000 target remains within reach.