K33 Says Bitcoin's 40% Drawdown Revives Four-Year Cycle Fears but Sees Low Risk of 80% Crash Repeat

Bitcoin has fallen about 40% from its all-time high, reviving comparisons with previous four-year cycle downturns and raising concerns over a renewed bear market, K33 said on Feb. 4. The firm argued the current slide differs structurally from the 2018 and 2022 phases, judging that an around 80% peak-to-trough decline is less likely, citing stronger institutional participation, inflows into regulated products, a more accommodative rate environment and the absence of 2022-style systemic deleveraging. K33 research head Vetle Lunde noted some bottoming signals have started to appear, including extreme readings in spot volumes and derivatives market stress, but said they are not yet sufficient to confirm a definitive low. Lunde highlighted about $74,000 as a key support level, warning that a break could see prices move toward $69,000 or even the 200-week moving average near $58,000, while K33 views current levels as a potential accumulation zone for long-term investors.