Bitcoin Climbs Back Toward $78,000 as Oil Shock Reprices Fed Cuts

Brent crude jumped 5.4% on Apr. 21 to settle at $99.89 after briefly touching $102.16, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily disrupted. Reports said just three vessels transited the strait over the prior 24 hours, far below the pre-conflict norm of roughly 140 per day. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol described the situation as the largest energy crisis in history. The IEA coordinated a record 400 million-barrel release from strategic reserves in March. The inflation pass-through is already visible in U.S. data. March retail sales beat forecasts, helped by a 15.5% jump in gasoline station receipts tied to war-driven fuel prices. Markets have responded by pushing out expectations for Federal Reserve easing. In late February, fed funds futures implied two 25-basis-point cuts by December. By Apr. 21, contracts reflected only a 30% chance of a single 25 bp cut for the full year. Rates and the dollar moved higher alongside oil on Apr. 21. The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.313% and the 2-year at 3.802%, both higher on the session, while the dollar strengthened. Bitcoin failed to rally in that setup, and even traditional inflation hedges struggled, with gold falling 2% as tighter real financing conditions and dollar strength dominated. Deutsche Bank underscored the risk on an Apr. 17 call, arguing the Fed could keep rates unchanged through 2026 if oil-driven inflation persists. A recent ceasefire-driven move highlighted the same macro linkage in reverse. After a ceasefire development on Apr. 7, Brent slid to $92.55 on Apr. 8, yields fell, traders rebuilt roughly 50% odds of a year-end Fed cut, and Bitcoin rose 2.95% to $72,738.16. Bitcoin recovered toward the upper-$70,000s, trading around $78,000 on Apr. 22, leaving investors focused on whether it can hold that level as oil and yields remain elevated. Two setups for the week ahead 1) Macro pressure dominates: If Brent holds above $100 and the 2-year yield rises from around 3.80%, markets are likely to price stickier inflation, fewer cuts, and tighter liquidity. Bitcoin could drift lower and retest support in the mid-$70,000s, reinforcing the view that it is behaving like a high-beta proxy for rate expectations. 2) Relative strength emerges: If Brent stays near $100 without accelerating, Hormuz disruption persists, and yields remain high, a Bitcoin market that stays flat or firms around $78,000—while equities and gold remain pressured—would signal resilience against a textbook macro headwind. Key levels to watch this week are Brent crude, the 2-year Treasury yield, and Bitcoin's ability to hold the upper-$70,000s.