Bitcoin's average rebound after down years nears 100%; 2025 closed −6.36%, 2026 watch

Bitcoin finished 2025 slightly negative at −6.36%, and prior cycles show years following drawdowns delivered gains of 35%, 95%, and 156%, averaging near 95%. Jesse Myers and Sminston With flag models that outline a $200,000–$300,000 base-case for 2026. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant metrics point to subdued momentum, with a 30-day average return of 0.0016 and a Sharpe-like ratio around 0.09.