Technical Analysis

The European Central Bank warned on November 26, 2025, that Big Tech companies represent 31.1% of the S&P 500's market capitalization while generating only 20.8% of index earnings, according to its Financial Stability Review. The bank identified this valuation gap as a financial stability risk, noting elevated asset prices and market concentration could trigger sharp corrections if AI adoption disappoints or economic growth weakens. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos distinguished current conditions from the dot-com bubble, citing established revenues and business models, but acknowledged valuation concerns.

Bitcoin stabilized around $87,000 as U.S. spot exchange-traded funds recorded $129 million in net inflows on November 25, reversing weeks of sustained redemptions. Approximately one-third of bitcoin supply remains below breakeven prices, with long-term holders accumulating while short-term cohorts drive selling pressure. Analysts view the current period as bitcoin's first major institutional stress test, with market direction hinging on Federal Reserve guidance, government shutdown resolution, and post-tax-season capital flows.

US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $3.7 billion in outflows during November, the largest monthly withdrawal since their launch, according to SoSoValue data. Bitcoin fell more than 35% from its October all-time high of $126,000, reaching $80,542 on November 21, the lowest level since April. Ethereum ETFs experienced $1.6 billion in outflows over the same period.

Bitcoin is trading near $87,000 following a 4% weekly decline, according to CoinGecko. Analysts have identified $85,000 as a critical support level and $88,000 as immediate resistance. A break above or below these thresholds could drive the price toward $93,000 or $75,000, respectively.

Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high of $126,000 to approximately $80,000, erasing over $600 billion in market capitalization. The cryptocurrency currently trades near $87,000 as traders monitor critical support zones. Three primary factors are driving the downturn: Federal Reserve policy shifts, institutional capital outflows combined with leveraged position liquidations, and tightening global liquidity conditions.

BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows exceeding $66 million across November 24-25, according to Coinglass data. IBIT saw $149.1 million in redemptions on November 24, followed by $83 million in inflows the next day. The withdrawals occurred as Bitcoin rebounded toward $88,000, marking a shift from IBIT's previous position as the dominant inflow leader among U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin's recovery attempt has stalled around $87,500-$88,000 after dropping below $81,000, prompting debate over whether a bottom has formed. Bearish social sentiment, negative MVRV ratios, and six consecutive weeks of whale selling suggest further downside risk. Analysts note a short-term bounce above $90,000 remains possible, though momentum indicators point to continued weakness.

Bitcoin has maintained support above $80,000 since dropping to that level on November 21. On-chain data show institutional wallets reducing positions while mid-sized holders accumulate. Technical indicators point to weakening selling pressure, though distribution from large whale cohorts continues.

Kaspa (KAS) saw open interest rise 42% to $66.92 million within 24 hours, driven by leveraged long positions with a positive funding rate of 0.0035%. However, active addresses fell 97.72% from 513,110 on November 11 to 11,770, while on-chain data showed distribution patterns and reduced network engagement. Despite $1.3 million in selling pressure over 48 hours, 54.84 million addresses maintained non-zero balances, suggesting stability in holder base even as momentum indicators weakened.

Bitcoin has rebounded toward the $87,000 to $90,000 range after declining from $106,000 to $80,600 over 10 days. While whale holders with over 10,000 BTC continue selling, mid-sized holders in the 10–1,000 BTC range are accumulating. Data shows demand from accumulator addresses reached 365,000 BTC on November 23, up from 254,000 BTC on November 1.