On February 18, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted an amicus brief to the Ninth US Circuit Court of Appeals asserting that it holds sole federal authority over prediction markets. The filing supports Crypto.com in a dispute with the Nevada Gaming Control Board over sports event contracts and argues that event contracts are commodity derivatives governed by the Dodd-Frank Act rather than gambling products. The clash with multiple US states, where nearly 50 cases target firms offering event contracts, has turned federal versus state control into a central issue for the rapidly growing prediction market sector.

On Monday, investor Ross Gerber said on X that Tesla’s brand value has turned negative and urged the company to sell its EV business to Rivian. Rivian reported a $144 million gross profit for 2025 and its stock jumped 27% on Friday, while Tesla’s net income fell 46% in 2025 to $3.8 billion.

Kraken became the first crypto exchange approved to connect its OTC desk to ICE Chat, enabling AI-assisted messaging for institutions. The company reports a global user base of 5.7 million, and the link plugs Kraken into a network used by over 120,000 market participants to negotiate pricing and execute large trades.

On Tuesday evening, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission told the Ninth Circuit that Congress granted it exclusive jurisdiction over futures and event contracts, in a case involving Crypto.com and the state of Nevada. The filing underpins the agency's stance that fast-growing prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, fall squarely under its federal authority, even as multiple states and lawmakers challenge that view and raise concerns about gambling, consumer protection and public interest.

XRP fell 7.5% to an intraday low of $1.45 after about 50 million tokens were sold on South Korean exchange Upbit in under 24 hours. Shiba Inu is struggling to hold the $0.00000666 area following a failed rebound, while Bitcoin has broken a 12-year valuation pattern against gold, raising concerns about a long-lasting "Quantum Discount" scenario.

Iran has partially closed the Strait of Hormuz during Revolutionary Guard drills under security precautions, according to state media. About 13 million bpd—roughly 31% of global seaborne crude—transit the passage, based on Kpler data, while the IEA's Monday report projects a 3.73 million bpd global oil surplus in 2026.

According to analyst David Lawant, collapsing premiums on CME Bitcoin futures indicate that institutional demand for leveraged exposure has dropped to levels last seen in October 2023. Traders are now showing less interest in upside leverage than during major stress events such as the April 2025 "Liberation Day" sell-off and the mid-2024 "German/JPY" unwind, signaling a shift from panic to deep market apathy.

Kamilah Stevenson, host of a wealth-focused YouTube show, argues that crypto custody is less about passive storage and more about ensuring investors can act when markets or regulations shift. She contrasts retail's focus on safety alone with institutional practices that prioritize segregation, bankruptcy-remote structures, OTC execution, and tax-advantaged wrappers. The core message is that the main risk in a more regulated environment may be being locked into setups that limit movement, borrowing, or portfolio rotation when needed.