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Federal Reserve researchers say Kalshi prediction market data could support interest rate policy decisions
On Feb. 12, three researchers linked to the U.S. Federal Reserve published a paper arguing that prediction market Kalshi can capture macroeconomic expectations in real time more effectively than traditional tools. The authors said Kalshi's intraday trading data could be used to derive risk-neutral probability distributions of Federal Open Market Committee rate decisions, although the paper is only intended to stimulate discussion rather than guide policy.