SEC Chair Paul Atkins said he believes Congress will advance the Clarity Act and that President Trump will sign the bill into law.

The Trump administration is taking a firm stance against a Federal Reserve-issued central bank digital currency (CBDC). The Senate has passed legislation that would prohibit a U.S. CBDC through 2030, reflecting concerns that a state-issued digital currency could enable government surveillance. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated the position at a recent press conference, saying the administration has been "very clear" that "there will be no Central Bank Digital Currency," arguing it could be "the first step toward tracking." He said the focus has shifted to stablecoin legislation and the CLARITY Act as the "important thing" to attract crypto investment back to the United States. CBDCs are often compared to stablecoins, but with a key difference: they are issued by governments rather than private companies such as Circle or Tether. Proponents say CBDCs can strengthen monetary sovereignty and give policymakers additional tools to manage money supply, similar to how fiat currency is used in inflation responses. Critics point to design proposals such as backdoor account freezing and expiration features intended to discourage hoarding, warning they could expand state monitoring. Globally, the debate is increasingly centered on whether central banks should pursue wholesale CBDCs, designed for high-value transactions among governments and major financial institutions, or retail CBDCs that would operate more like consumer-facing alternatives to stablecoins. With stablecoins already widely adopted, many policymakers see stronger near-term rationale in wholesale models aimed at cross-border payments between large banks and governments. Most central banks are exploring wholesale payment infrastructure through Project Agora, backed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). It remains uncertain whether CBDCs will be included when live testing begins. As of late 2025, 91% of central banks were exploring CBDCs. In 2026, Kenya, the Philippines, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and the U.S. cancelled their CBDC plans, though the U.S. could revisit the idea after 2030. According to CBDC Tracker data, only four countries have launched a CBDC: Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Jamaica, and the Bahamas. Most other efforts remain in research or pilot stages, including China's e-CNY and India's e-rupee. In summary, Bessent said the U.S. will not pursue a CBDC under the Trump administration and will instead prioritize stablecoin regulation. Globally, roughly 100 countries are studying, developing, or piloting CBDCs.

Texas is moving from talk to execution on a state-run Bitcoin reserve. Acting Texas Comptroller Kelly Hancock said May 28 that the state has created the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Advisory Committee, a five-member body established under Senate Bill 21. The group will advise Texas on how to value, safeguard and administer Bitcoin as a public-sector asset. The committee brings together voices from mining, finance and academia. Among the appointees is Gary A. Vecchiarelli, president and CFO of CleanSpark, one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miners in the U.S. Jamie McAvity, CEO of Cormint Data Systems, adds another mining seat; Cormint operates Bitcoin mining facilities in Texas. Investment professional Laurie Dotter also joins. Carla Reyes, an SMU law professor specializing in digital asset policy, is another named member. The committee is charged with recommendations across four areas: Bitcoin valuation, risk management, digital asset management and custody policy. The panel's formation follows passage of Senate Bill 21 during the 89th Texas Legislature, legislation that set the legal foundation for establishing and maintaining a strategic Bitcoin reserve. At the same time, Hancock's office issued a request for proposals seeking firms to provide custody and liquidity services for the state's Bitcoin holdings, with an emphasis on institutional-grade security and transparent public reporting. For investors, the roster offers clues about Texas' direction. The presence of two mining executives suggests the state is viewing Bitcoin in the context of its energy and infrastructure footprint, not solely as a financial allocation. The inclusion of a digital-asset policy scholar points to heightened attention to regulatory and governance issues at the state level. Two near-term developments merit attention: which providers win the custody and liquidity RFP, and whether other large states pursue similar legislation.

## Market Snapshot Prediction market pricing shows a 4% YES chance that Bitcoin reaches $200,000 by Dec. 31, 2026, unchanged over the past 24 hours. The market assigns a 1% YES chance that Bitcoin hits $150,000 by Jun. 30, 2026, down slightly from 24 hours ago. ## Key Takeaways – The SEC Chair's comments point to a major U.S. regulatory step for crypto markets. – Current pricing reflects growing confidence in higher Bitcoin targets into late 2026. – The push fits a broader pro-crypto turn in U.S. policy. ## Article Body SEC Chair Paul Atkins said President Donald Trump is expected to sign a cryptocurrency market structure bill in the near term, a move that would reshape the U.S. regulatory approach to digital assets. The legislation is part of a broader congressional effort to create a federal framework for digital-asset markets, building on prior initiatives such as FIT21 and the Clarity Act. The SEC has called for clearer, unified rules for cryptocurrencies, aligning with the White House's pro-crypto posture following the signing of the GENIUS Act. If enacted, the measure would signal a shift away from agency-driven enforcement toward a more durable statutory basis for crypto oversight. ## Market Interpretation The update is supportive of a YES outcome for contracts tied to Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2026. Traders may view the prospect of clearer federal rules as a catalyst for stronger investor participation and improved sentiment toward Bitcoin, increasing the perceived odds of a large price move. ## What to Watch Focus on confirmation of the bill's signing by President Trump. Additional signals, including related legislative progress and public comments from Trump or SEC Chair Paul Atkins, could quickly feed into crypto market expectations. The direction of U.S. crypto policy remains a key driver for forward-looking pricing. Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig said the agency has approved the listing of a Bitcoin perpetual contract on a CFTC-registered exchange, a move that brings crypto perpetuals under the U.S. regulatory framework.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is cautioning that the global push toward round-the-clock trading may work for crypto-native markets but could prove problematic for parts of the traditional derivatives ecosystem. In a letter sent Friday to the exchanges and clearing organizations it oversees, the CFTC said the move to 24/7 trading and clearing is "not currently" appropriate for every asset class, citing structural differences across underlying markets. The agency noted that the viability of always-on markets has been enabled by advances such as blockchain networks and decentralized infrastructure, alternative collateral including stablecoins and other crypto assets, and broad access via smartphones and related applications. It added that more platforms are now offering 24/7 access to both retail and institutional traders across a growing range of products. The CFTC singled out certain traditional sectors as less compatible with continuous trading. It said some derivatives markets, including agricultural products, may be ill-suited to 24/7 hours given their distinct customer bases, regional characteristics, and specialized trading and hedging practices. A central concern is market integrity during less-monitored, off-peak periods. The regulator warned that extending hours for certain markets or products could lead to thinner liquidity, higher volatility, wider bid-ask spreads and, in turn, greater opportunity for market manipulation. The CFTC said platforms remain the first line of defense and should add compliance measures tailored to the risks that come with expanded trading schedules. It urged firms considering longer hours to share their plans with the agency. The advisory arrived the same day the CFTC granted a significant green light to crypto-native platforms offering perpetual futures contracts, a move that underscores what may be an emerging split between incumbent market structures and newer entrants. Chairman Mike Selig, the agency's current leader, has made adoption of new technologies—including crypto and prediction markets—a top priority. His agenda, aligned with directives and encouragement from President Donald Trump, has accelerated the regulator's crypto policy work aimed at creating a clearer path for the industry. Coinbase, a CFTC-supervised crypto-native firm, said in a Friday blog post that it is working to rebuild traditional financial services on crypto infrastructure. "Equities, futures, and prediction markets all operate 24/7 on our platform," the company said, pointing to the agency's new allowance of global options and perpetual futures through one of its CFTC-regulated affiliates. "Today's announcement adds the largest and most liquid category of global crypto trading to that lineup."

Congress is considering shifting primary oversight of much of the crypto market to an agency that has recently lost a significant share of its staff. The CLARITY Act (formally the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025) would classify most crypto assets as "digital commodities" and make the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) the lead regulator for spot and cash markets. Critics argue the CFTC may not have the staffing and funding to carry out such a broad mandate. Brookings fellow Tonantzin Carmona has been among the most prominent voices warning that the bill could produce a regulatory structure that looks robust on paper but struggles in execution. ### A thinner agency By the end of fiscal year 2025, the CFTC's workforce fell from 708 to 556 full-time equivalents, a 21% decline. The timing is notable: the reduction comes as lawmakers debate what could become the largest expansion of the agency's responsibilities. Budget comparisons underscore the gap. The CFTC is operating on roughly $365 million for FY2026, while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has about $2.1 billion. That is close to a six-to-one advantage for the SEC, even though the proposed framework would shift certain crypto responsibilities away from it. Carmona's core concern is that the CLARITY Act could impose obligations comparable in scope to the Dodd-Frank Act on an agency that lacks the personnel and resources to implement them. ### What the bill would change The CLARITY Act, designated H.R. 3633, passed the House of Representatives in July 2025. The Senate Banking Committee marked it up in May 2026, bringing it closer to potential enactment. A central aim is to end the long-running jurisdictional dispute between the CFTC and the SEC over crypto. Under the bill, the CFTC would have exclusive jurisdiction over spot transactions in digital commodities. Exchanges, brokers, dealers, and custodians handling these assets would be required to register with the CFTC. The bill sets a 270-day effective date for registration requirements and gives regulators 360 days to finalize implementing rules. On March 17, 2026, the SEC and CFTC issued joint interpretive guidance that began laying the groundwork for the new classification system. The guidance identified assets including Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and XRP as digital commodities, a designation that determines which regulator has oversight and which rulebook applies. ### The implementation question The CFTC's traditional focus has been derivatives markets—futures, swaps, and options—where trading is dominated by institutional participants. Spot crypto markets are broader and more retail-driven, involving millions of individual investors, many of them first-time market participants. Oversight of retail-heavy markets typically requires extensive consumer-protection infrastructure. The SEC has built that capacity over decades through enforcement resources, investor education, and disclosure processing at scale. Moving oversight away from the SEC does not automatically transplant those capabilities to the CFTC. ### What to watch The 360-day rulemaking deadline could become a major stress test. The CFTC would need to write a comprehensive regime for a new set of market participants, spanning exchange registration, custody standards, and market surveillance, all within a year. With a FY2026 budget of about $365 million and a workforce of 556, the agency would be attempting a rapid expansion under tight constraints. Investors may want to track how the Senate handles the bill and whether lawmakers pair it with appropriations language that meaningfully boosts CFTC funding. Without added resources, critics argue, the CLARITY Act risks becoming a regulatory framework built more on ambition than operational capacity.

Coinbase said U.S. institutional clients can now tap global liquidity in crypto options and perpetual futures through Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), its CFTC-regulated futures commission merchant. The company said the service consolidates access into a single regulated venue, allowing clients to trade on international platforms such as Deribit without routing activity through offshore entities.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has registered Paxos Securities Settlement Company (@Paxos) as a clearing agency under Section 17A, making it the only blockchain-native firm authorized to operate as a central securities depository in the United States. CEO Charles Cascarilla (@chadcascarilla) said the approval follows seven years of work, starting with a 2019 no-action letter and a live U.S. equities settlement pilot that has been running since 2020. The pilot cleared and settled real equities on a daily basis with major financial institutions, which helped support the application. The SEC's (@SECGov) order grants the registration on a temporary basis, a common step as the agency develops a framework for blockchain-based settlement. The decision places a blockchain-built firm at the heart of U.S. securities settlement operations.