Trump's Kevin Warsh Fed nomination lifts March rate-cut odds to 23%

President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair has lifted market-implied odds of a March interest rate cut to about 23%, up from roughly 18.4% just days earlier. Traders are largely pricing in a 25-basis-point cut, while Polymarket participants assign a 27% chance of two cuts in 2026 and crypto analysts say Bitcoin's next major rally could emerge even if the asset climbs under persistently high Fed rates.