Polymarket assigns 21% probability to Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by end of 2026

Prediction market traders on Polymarket currently assign only a 21% chance that Bitcoin will hit $150,000 before 2027, even as several analysts forecast much higher levels in 2026. The market instead prices an 80% probability of BTC touching $100,000 and 45% odds of it reaching $120,000, below its prior all-time high. This cautious stance follows Bitcoin ending 2025 in negative territory and comes amid expectations of a new Federal Reserve chair, lower interest rates and upcoming U.S. crypto legislation.